3.16 Tide Receding Period: Focus on One Thing — Keep Your Hands in Check, in an Extremely Fragmented Quantitative Market

Like and then watch, earning millions daily. Keep it up with tips and rewards. Good luck always! If my morning thoughts help you, I hope you won’t be stingy with likes. Double-tap the comment area with 小宝666! [Taoguba]

From now on, all follow and unfollow votes will include a logical breakdown. Brothers interested in learning can review it together with the morning thoughts. Once you learn the logic, you can gradually add your own understanding!

Next Friday at 8 PM, the platform has arranged a live broadcast. Brothers, please support us. Those capable, please give more boosts. If you have questions, leave a comment below today’s post. I will record them. Brothers boosting the most will get priority in answers. The live session time is fixed, so bring your notebooks and quickly supplement your knowledge!

First, an overview of the market

Currently, per platform requirements, I can only review sectors; others will be described in text, no more images. Please compare with my morning thoughts. Today I keep reminding everyone to watch out for risks. On Friday, some still doubted whether the tide was turning; today, few will doubt it anymore.

As I mentioned before the market opened, Friday was highly divided. On one hand, the low-position wind power sector remains strong, but earlier recognitions like SanNa, HanLan, and YuNeng all experienced big drops or even limit downs.

Long-time followers know this polarization will eventually correct itself. Either wind power continues to be strong, leading to a recovery of old recognitions, or old recognitions keep falling, dragging down and forming new branches.

I also emphasize that if the tide continues to retreat, many patterns will fail, causing big pitfalls. Today, look at the market—are many good stocks just hitting the limit? Many solid stocks are just a big mess.

Fundamentally, quant strategies tend to sell off in bad markets, locking in profits. Quant can keep doing T+0 trades to re-accumulate, but when the market hits limits and falls back, it’s very painful.

Today, the focus is on whether the main upward trend is strong, and whether the recognition of Friday’s correction is bouncing back or continuing to fall. It’s a chaotic scene.

Clearly, funds chose the latter—during the day, Nanna rose again, warning of risk, because this is a counter-trend move. Today’s rally doesn’t reach new highs, so it’s mostly a self-rescue by funds. Especially since the sector has been retreating for two days, even if it recovers later, it’s an opportunity to exit early. If the sector doesn’t flow back, the rebound may be followed by further declines.

Friday’s severe divergence leaves a question mark on the retreat. If today continues like this, whether it’s the electric cooperation or energy substitution, it signals the end of the short-term trend.

Market sentiment mainly reacts to stocks that broke their limits on Friday—Ningbo Construction and Green Power. Green Power continued to fall sharply, impacting the electric cooperation sector. Ningbo, due to some inflow of computing power during the day, didn’t have a big negative reaction today.

But overall, today’s market confirms the retreat. The only thing to do now is to hold back.

Sector themes are highly divided. Today, institutional performance was decent—storage chips were strong, mainly reflecting external storage mapping. But if not bought at low points, chasing high will be painful. When external sectors fall, stocks tend to follow 100%.

Continuous limit-up stocks—today’s Zhongnan Culture’s order book determined sector divergence. Friday already missed many stocks, but over the weekend, there was news about energy superpowers, and the 14th Five-Year Plan was also highlighted. Today’s opening price was worse than expected; it even lacked buy orders, with serious divergence below.

Huaneng Energy follows the same logic. Zhongnan topped with a single order, which is the highest in the sector, pushing it up. But today, Zhongnan opened with a large order book and sector divergence, so it also faced big internal disagreements.

Friday, I mentioned that Huaneng’s positioning relative to Green Power wasn’t very meaningful—just a positioning move. Its only extra attribute was coal, but coal also didn’t get much support today. It seemed some funds wanted to act at the open, but the negative feedback from Electric Power Construction was too strong, dragging it down.

This is a typical retreat phase—don’t try to force open new highs.

Three-in-four, Jinniu Chemical, was relatively strong today. The main reason was that the opening was not high, and it surged to limit up early. But sector backlash was severe. Chemical stocks seem very difficult—more subdivisions, stocks with strong futures gains are more confident; those with volatile futures are hesitant.

Today, I looked at whether it would separate from Baichuan again. Friday already tried, but honestly, Baichuan’s stock is very poor in nature, and it’s an old sector recognition.

The most unexpected in the two-in-three batch was Sanhe Stock. It closed strong on Friday, and today it opened even higher—limit up immediately, driven by sharp price increases. The logic is solid, funds are confident. But isn’t Sanhe Stock part of the three-shift group? PaoEn’s sell-off is a reversal—does that mean it’s the third?

Other stocks that can hit the limit include Luhua Technology, which opened with a board, thinking it’s a change in stock nature, but was hammered down again. Luhua Fertilizer, which benefited from PaoEn’s reversal, also got hammered, making it look very bleak.

For the first limit, I did a lot of homework over the weekend, including reverse reasoning and small team analysis. You can review my morning thoughts for details. The success rate is very low, indicating extremely extreme quant trading.

The approach is to do bulk layout and then sell off in batches, without sustained momentum. The difficulty in moving from one to two is very high, so I suggest everyone stay flat. If you must trade, do small positions for trial.

Jingtou Development announced over the weekend the disposal of loss assets, initially thought it would top with a limit, and Jinghua Laser got some benefits. But it didn’t open with a limit, just a change of hands. I mentioned this stock before Friday’s open—didn’t expect such a high elimination rate to continue.

Yaxiang Integration, after a prolonged decline, probably shook out many people. When external storage rebounded, it immediately hit two limit-ups. Still, this stock is quite active—every time storage moves, it hits the limit. In the US market, only storage was strong on Friday; others were weak.

In the chip sector, resistance was seen, but mainly because the sector had a big adjustment last Friday. Today was an oversold rebound, with ShunNa leading, others following. In a retreat environment, weak recoveries tend to be early exits or waiting. The afternoon saw a bottoming attempt with a “golden needle,” but sincerity was lacking. Mainly driven by Hong Kong stocks leading, and the mainland A-shares’ storage and Yizhongtian rebounded, mainly to support the market, also to see if US tech rebounds in the evening.

Institutional funds should buy on dips, not chase highs. After the index recovers, sentiment has not warmed up.

The difficulty remains high. Tomorrow, I suggest more watching than acting. Without a new main theme, avoid chasing high in rotation markets to prevent being caught off guard.

Review of limit-up stocks:

1. Sanhe Stock—Jiangsu PTA leader, chemical sector rising, Friday late surge, today weak to strong.
2. Farsen—Jiangsu fiber optics, environmental protection, sector leader, same as Sanhe.

Two-in-boards—Many stocks laid out on Friday; success rate is laughable.

1. Yaxiang Integration—Jiangsu semiconductor cleanroom, institutional stock, limit up hints at storage rebound.
2. Jingtou Development—Zhejiang real estate, tourism, positive over the weekend, but only a turnover board today.
3. Chitianhua—Guizhou chemical fertilizer, temporarily a “golden bull,” but overall not high.
4. Xihua Technology—Jiangsu new stock, wind power, late-day sneak attack, sector rebound, but sector bidding is weak and prone to explosion.

First limit:

1. Dongfang Ocean—Shandong marine economy, pre-made dishes, medical devices, news over the weekend.
2. China Oil Capital—Xinjiang controlled nuclear fusion, cross-border payments, rumors RMB settlement ships can pass the strait, but the biggest bid was a failure—serious mistake.
3. Huaneng LiaoNeng—Liaoning green power, wind power, bid to limit, thought it would push Northeast Huaneng, but Huaneng retreated sharply. Watch if Huaneng opens high to assist.
4. Standard Shares—Shaanxi sewing equipment, decent market cap, feels like a 90-degree trap again.
5. Dongfang Xinneng—Beijing green power, forestry, agriculture, average market cap.
6. Youfu Shares—Zhejiang chemical fiber, marine economy, combined with marine economic quant, limit up, followed by ShenKai, Haiming, Juli, but Juli hit the limit.
7. Nongfa Seed Industry—Beijing fertilizer, agricultural planting, average market cap.
8. Yibin Technology—Zhejiang robotics, weeders, auto parts, micro-cap, fragmented.
9. Shenhua Development—Guangdong optics, panels, decent market cap, stock pool on Shangtang Road.
10. ZLJY—Xinjiang textile machinery, AI smart factories, only economic pull, oscillating.
11. Dingxin Communications—Shandong Southern Power grid, smart grid, chips, zigzag.
12. Xiwang Food—Shandong corn oil, sports nutrition, unappealing name.
13. 26 Three—Beijing cloud computing, leading the way in computing power rebound.
14. Shuhua Sports—Fujian football, elderly care, sports sector not active.
15. ShunNa—Guangdong electric cooperation, proactive, full of courage, needs sector support.
16. Vico Tech—Zhejiang two-wheel vehicles, consumer electronics, energy storage, average market cap.
17. Shengshi Tech—Guangdong robotics, storage chips, security, high stock price, decent market cap.
18. Guosheng Tech—Beijing energy storage, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, XinDuoDuo concept stocks.
19. Hainan HNA—Tianjin port shipping, Hainan Free Trade Port, decent market cap.
20. Shengli Precision—Jiangsu AI glasses, copper foil composites, no clear victory.
21. Jinan International—Shanghai PCB, hits new highs with sector moves.
22. Yingxin Development—Beijing storage chips, unsure if supporting Jingtou.
23. China Merchants South Oil—Oil shipping, positive news.
24. Tiandi Online—Beijing AI marketing, Li Yapeng’s e-commerce concept stocks, indicator oversold rebound?
25. Huashengchang—Guangdong power grid equipment, acquired optical communication companies, high-position zigzag.
26. GigaDevice—Beijing storage chips, central army, shows storage strength.
27. Annie Shares—Fujian paper, data rights confirmation, fragmented market cap.
28. Yutong Tech—Guangdong packaging, robotics, pet economy, late-day limit-up, high stock price, likely indicating other sectors.

Overall, during retreat phases, don’t believe in so-called crossing—nine out of ten will fail. But the current market remains very fragmented: on one hand, large sectors keep rising, heavily suppressed; on the other, very few stocks hit limits. This is the quant manipulation at play—difficult to rally, yet not falling apart.

At the close, stocks like Luhua and Huaneng fought for抢, indicating quant strategies aim for sector flowback tomorrow. If sectors are strong, there’s a chance for a rebound; if weak, more selling.

High-difficulty market—wait until sentiment warms before acting. Otherwise, the more you trade, the more mistakes you make.

Thank you again to all brothers who supported yesterday @asdfghzxcvbn@狼王行千里@dandy3574@我是韩跑跑@煮面大粥@不做韭菜的阿喵@煮面大粥@社会性动物@zqzq1996@412是22@湾流G and others.

Thanks to the top supporter @我还是那个哈士奇, second supporter @奶酪猪猫, third supporter @南京伊布.

Special thanks for the generous tips and support to @洪六公@请不要站在窗下@情小怀@唯梦倾城@lyh98888@骏豪大拿@白给王中王@小天一@差不多先生来了@Elite@向牛而升@奥莉奥斯缘@天才小火龙L@猫猫发财猫@Lee1987@shaks@Matt哥@zqzq1996@花信有时@好运哈哈哈@嘻嘻哈哈的知行合一@小度小度96@一一牛@狼王行千里@未记代价卖牡丹@知行合一168067@勇敢的猪猪@人简单一笔够写完一生@道乾坤1@发发发财发发@边涯@专注超短龙头@魉呼@百城兄弟@回本就行呜呜呜@骑驴看唱本寻马@sdffghhjkkk@自动敲木鱼@小小华哥哥@张世勋@不颜不雨@程888@大毛不做杂毛@拿小先生@紫金花@张优金@一口破钟@南京伊布@接盘的小韭菜@王德法@若水紫嫣@韭黄阿盼@dandy3574@AAAAKang@不动m@佑手旧零@蝉蛹好吃@不做韭菜好多年@初学炒股99@ZGX呆呆@楷森@江西小@左手化羽@在下A股鬼见愁@浙江余姚人蟑螂恶霸111@一亿路红@您的好邻居王哥@水阳江畔@Are21@西夕夕夕@燃烧的红河日股夜钓@吃mian达人@泡沫冬冬@guyd@红桃K的世界@半罐水888@magickang@张只有十七万@agag777@舵飞轮@Freedom航天@古秦洋@头晕时间。你们是默默打赏、最初支持我的好兄弟，祝兄弟们天天发财！

No need for many oil tickets, seven are enough. Thanks everyone for the top comments—your support is my motivation to keep updating.