[Red envelope] Who will lead the new cycle!

Foreword [Taogu Ba]

Not every day Has a worthy trading point And not every day Must you force yourself to trade

When you hold a vacant position and observe Truly incorporate it into your trading system As an active choice

Rather than passive waiting Your account curve Will truly become steady, long-lasting, and upward

1. Trading Review:

2. Yuegui Co.: The first fifteen minutes of today’s morning session showed a shift from weakness to strength, then turned weak and hovered below water. Overall, the entire day remained oscillating above the 5-day moving average, maintaining a trend pattern consistent with the current outlook.

3. Jinniu Chemical: A medium- to long-term trending stock, now the emotional leader in the chemical sector. Last Friday was a volatile day with repeated breakouts, and today’s morning session saw a quick upward breakout. The whole day continued to fluctuate with breakouts, but remained strong despite volatility. The next resistance level is around 21 yuan.

4. Market Breakdown:

a) Index Understanding: The market rebounded after a dip today, with the ChiNext Index leading up over 1%. Over 2,800 stocks rose, with sectors showing hot rotation, growth leading, and traditional energy adjusting. The total turnover was 2.33 trillion yuan (shrinking by 75 billion).

b) Continuous Board Tier: Recently, the overall sentiment for consecutive breakouts remains weak. Yunnan Energy’s breakthrough past 7 boards was limited, making it the first to break the ice after the holiday. Overall, Yunnan Energy’s recent strong performance exceeds expectations, with funds attempting to guide new groupings, but short-term market sentiment is poor, and during the meeting period, regulators have not relaxed restrictions. Therefore, the sustainability of various patterns should be downgraded, mainly focusing on arbitrage. Last Friday, Yunnan Energy hit a limit-down, and today touched the floor during trading. This cycle can be summarized as Yunnan Energy’s “electricity calculation” cycle, serving as a core phase and the main leader of the theme; the second phase involves Shun Na Co. and Han Lan Co., and the third phase is Huadian Energy. The first two phases both experienced limit-downs, and next Monday is likely to continue this downward trend. Tuesday or Wednesday next week will be the start of a new cycle. Be patient these days and control your hands.

3. Sector Understanding:

a) Leading Sector: Storage chips lead the rise, with multiple themes resonating and strengthening

1. Storage Chips (Main Theme)

• Catalytic Logic: ① Supply-demand gap + rising prices: AI server demand explodes, global storage capacity only increases by 7%-8%, supply-demand imbalance persists, DDR4 and NAND flash prices hit new highs since 2016, HBM high-bandwidth memory up over 170%, with the price increase cycle extending to 2027. ② Accelerated domestic substitution: Domestic cloud providers are clearly shifting orders, combined with a strong industry outlook, with continued performance dividends.

2. Deep Sea Technology (Policy Catalysis)

• Catalytic Logic: The 6th issue of “Qiushi” magazine published articles promoting high-quality development of the marine economy, clarifying the formulation of marine economic plans, increasing policy support, and advancing offshore oil and gas exploration, marine energy development, etc. These policies directly catalyze the sector’s explosion.

3. PCB Concept (AI Computing Power + Price Increase)

• Catalytic Logic: ① Driven by AI computing power: Nvidia GTC conference approaching, LPU inference chips boost high-end PCB demand, multi-card interconnection promotes PCB layer upgrades. ② Cost transmission: Upstream copper and other raw material prices rise, downstream companies raise prices, industry enters a “price increase + high prosperity” double-hit channel.

4. Shipping Sector (Geopolitics + Freight Rate Rise)

• Catalytic Logic: Red Sea geopolitical conflicts lead to rerouted shipping lanes, increased container freight rerouting, MSC raises fuel surcharge for Red Sea routes, and rising freight rates directly benefit shipping companies.

b) Declining Sectors: Energy storage and green power adjust, coal weakens

1. Energy Storage / Green Power (Expectations Diverge + Capital Outflow)

• Decline Logic: ① Seasonal off-peak: Rising temperatures end heating demand, short-term electricity demand cools. ② Short-term expectation divergence: Long-term benefits like “electricity calculation synergy” take time to materialize, funds shift to growth themes, and sector sentiment weakens.

2. Coal Sector (Off-season + Supply-Demand Relaxation)

• Decline Logic: March marks the traditional off-season for thermal coal, main production areas resume production leading to ample supply, power plants hold high inventories and low daily consumption, profit expectations are lowered; hydropower and photovoltaics increasingly substitute, further suppressing coal demand.

4. Tomorrow’s Opportunities:

a) First Board to Second Board: Shun Na Co. + Nongfa Seed Industry; b) Continuous Board (Follow-up): None; c) Rebound Pattern: Xiongtao Co.;

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