3.16 Periodic Review Post - It's my birthday today, making a wish for my followers to reach 100k

[Stock Forum]

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I try to reply to all**
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Market Overview

NM, I’m A, mostly times double needle bottoming is enough

This wave has gone three needles, and made new lows, so the geopolitical risks are quite high.

Every time there’s a needle insertion, there are two days of resonance with the market rebound,

and this time is no exception, but tomorrow’s rebound volume needs to be watched.

Because my A has had two previous rebounds that were volume-down declines and volume-up rebounds.

If this time’s volume-down rebound is just playing tricks, then there’s no clear reversal here.

We still need to see consolidation. I estimate that only after the Hormuz Strait fully opens can the trend turn bullish.

So short-term optimism is limited, but mid-term development is inevitable; geopolitics will have less and less impact on us.

The peak trapped chips at 4140 can be considered a strong resistance after effective coverage at this level.

Profit-taking Effect
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Weak Divergence**

Damage is minimal, but insult is very strong

The limit-down stocks have shrunk to single digits, five in total

Excluding China Power Construction and Yunnan Energy Holdings, which are less recognizable stocks

There are 44 stocks hitting the daily limit, but the profit effect is not enough

Weak opening, tomorrow’s recovery can be expected, and divergence can be addressed

But the market’s divergence over the past three days has already been V-shaped today

Tomorrow’s normal expectation is for recovery

And

The number of green-shaded bottom shadows on 03.04 was 3,464
The same on 03.09 was 3,715
Today’s green bottom shadows are 2,301

More are red, so why not expect a recovery tomorrow?

The “dog basket” of continuous limit-ups has reduced to 3 boards, haha, it’s about time for a rebound.

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Emotion Cycle**
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The overall structure remains chaotic**
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So expectations shouldn’t be too high**

Theme Cycle

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Bulk Commodities

Historical patterns show that bulk commodities follow a rotation rhythm: “Gold and silver move first → Copper confirms → Oil ignites → #Agriculture concludes.”

This is a pattern observed by institutions; they’ve already started to hype agriculture, with today’s biggest gains in the seed industry sector.

Hormuz Strait’s issues with fertilizers and grains

The strongest chemical sector today almost formed a bullish engulfing, but during the session, it plunged, and the close looked quite poor.

Without the support of futures tonight and the decline of the market, cooperation becomes difficult.

This sector still targets Jinniu Chemical, which is in a bullish trend on the daily chart.

The outlook isn’t high, today’s sector is at a low level with strong supplementary gains, mainly agriculture, cross-border payments, and shipping returning in the afternoon.

Small metals logic has also been hyped, but the buyers are on standby.

Geopolitical chaos, American dominance?

This instability has become a trend.

It’s linked to the broader trend of the US heading into recession, repeating the old paths of the UK and Spain, which won’t change.

So here, I hope S3 comes a bit later.

If the world order is to change, we just need one more S3.

In the future, bulk commodities might be a tradable logic on an annual basis, with occasional waves of hype.

This 5-wave structure is already perfect.

Wave 1: Gold
Wave 3: Oil
Wave 5: Chemicals

Big Tech

Overseas Nvidia-related stocks

Morning strength: -4000+; close strength: 4492; afternoon flow back.

This wave’s rhythm is anchored by second-tier institutional stocks,

because first-tier stocks like Yili Zhongtian had tenfold growth last year, with no room left, no growth, only performance, which was already fully priced in last year.

Longfei Fiber Optic has reached the fourth stage of the main rise. Future depends on whether divergence continues and whether it can reach the fifth stage of the main rise.

It’s possible that internal segmentation occurs, such as crossing over into PCB, completing the fifth stage.

From the second hour of today, PCB is outperforming CPO optical modules.

Overbought conditions are a sin; today’s small negative article on optical modules indicates that after a big rise, it gets amplified.

On Friday, watch for Monday; the structure of the fourth stage remains good.

High-level Longfei Fiber Optic oscillates; low-level supplementary gains include Risen, Zhaochi, and others, but the strength of supplementary gains today was below expectations, with some feedback.

Crossing-over stocks include Farsight.

Today, overseas Nvidia-related segments like PCB, electronics, copper foil are relatively strong.

First, Dongshan’s bidding exceeded expectations; low-level supplementary gains include Jinan Guoji and Shengli Precision.

Electronics segment’s Zhuolang Intelligent.

Mainly driven by small articles continuously hyping.

Also, D-lao repeatedly explained the logic, all during trading hours.

Overall, centered around the Nvidia GTC conference on the 16th-19th, the overseas computing power circle’s grand event, carnival.

Just wait for the hype tonight. If US stocks surge today,

tomorrow’s momentum will transmit here.

Domestic computing power advanced process, semiconductors

First layer: US stocks reflect; Micron and Sandisk surge.

Second layer: Korean foundries and TSMC’s power supply needs a lot of LNG, also affected by Hormuz.

Third layer: The most important, mainly oversold rebound, still underperforming.

Core recognition: Demingli, Bawei Storage are in the second stage of the main rise.

Internal competition: On Friday, Demingli resisted strongly; on Monday, Bawei Storage showed proactive strength.

Low-level new round of supplementary gains is strong, including Taiji Industrial, Yingxin Development.

But true emotional drivers are Zege Innovation and Huahong Company.

Today, these two small articles exploded; I saw at least four on Huahong.

The core of intra-day sentiment points to Zege Innovation as the emotional anchor for tomorrow’s trend.

Domestic AI + Computing Power

Annoying, computing power shows signs of stabilization; future rebounds will compete with institutional stocks for liquidity.

Lobster here still has a chance, plus Hongjing Technology.

Today’s newly fermented logic is quite absurd—like the 3.15 logic, what’s worth arguing about?

When rising, they call it “Little Sweetie GEO AI marketing, high-end and classy”; now they call it “Niu Lady ‘AI poisoning’.”

233 Online, Tiandi Online.

Electric Power and Power Grid

Market drops: big commodities rise; market rises: tech stocks.

No movement: moderate electric power.

As mentioned, once the market rebounds, electricity stocks will give way.

Anchors: Hanlan Co., and Yunnan Energy Holdings.

Both have completed the 5-wave structure perfectly.

Friday’s divergence—uncertain whether it’s a strong divergence during the main rise or a retreat wave.

Because there are too many “survivors” left. The low-level supplementary gains are too aggressive.

So, the market has mixed views on the future.

Today, consensus shifted to bearish. Those bearish continue; those bullish turned bearish.

Friday’s laggard, Yunnan Energy Holdings, continued to fall today, with two consecutive limit-downs.

Friday’s resilient stocks, China Energy Construction and GCL-Poly Energy, did not fall.

Low-level supplementary gains include Dajin Heavy Industry, China Nuclear Construction, Electric Power Construction.

Friday’s first and second boards almost all failed.

So, temporarily, this is defined as a rapid decline phase.

Tomorrow, expect a decline exhaustion + recovery anticipation.

Intra-day, the active crossing of stocks like Shun Na Shares is ongoing.

Funds are already positioning for the bottom, expecting a halt in decline tomorrow.

Jinkai New Energy, Huadian Energy.

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Style and Bias**
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Likely to be trend-driven main upward movement**
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With secondary boards as support**

Intra-day institutional stocks dominate.

Both indices reflect this expectation: the hundred-yuan stock index and the overseas business index.

Quantitative Era
Objectivity alone can’t beat quantitative; only human subjectivity can surpass it.
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My subjective view is:**

First, avoid zig-zagging repeatedly.

Currently, multiple lines run in parallel; don’t always think “my rhythm is invincible,” jumping from one theme’s main rise to another’s.

Most people chase high in one theme, then cut losses, then chase high in another theme.

Nut Brother isn’t more capable than most of you; in the past two weeks, jumping between oil and computing power, he was cut in half.

The pattern is fine, it’s just about rhythm.

Stick to your preferred theme, ensure a good flow of start, development, transition.

Second, the only true main line remains: multi-line rotation.

If you want to do cycles like aerospace or straits themes that resonate with sentiment cycles, you still have to wait.

Third, lower expectations during chaotic periods.

Chaos means both profit and loss effects exist.

Even if the market drops, oil and chemicals still provide profit opportunities, mainly due to rhythm.

In chaos, rhythm determines whether it’s a bull market every day or a bear market every day.

It’s basically a oscillating market.

Dongshan Precision
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No movement**

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Morning bidding exceeded expectations but no initial limit-up in the first hour.

Afternoon was pushed up by the sector, but the hourly chart showed weaker performance than the sector.

If it’s an emotional stock, it should be sold off in the afternoon.

Holding it is a gamble. Tonight’s US stocks surged.

If they really run for two days, their characteristic is no limit-up, continuous rise—be cautious.

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Demingli**
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No movement**

Weekend’s trend recognition and sector focus—left or right side?

Using Longfei Fiber Optic as an example.

Did you notice how similar this stock’s daily K-line is to Longfei Fiber Optic?

Both are first and second divergence small doji crosses, with the first day breaking the limit,

and the second day reversing the gains.

If it hits the limit, the intraday structure is quite similar.

But Longfei Fiber Optic’s morning was actively hitting the board, though it also broke.

The difference is that Demingli was pushed back in the afternoon.

So don’t just blindly follow the pattern; K-line looks similar but background differs greatly.

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The transition from stage two to three for Longfei Fiber Optic, in the context of the market rebounding to the upper band of the box at 4200.

Can our current rebound reach the upper band? Uncertain. If it only reaches the midline, it can’t go higher.

Then it’s pointless; maybe stage two is over without stage three.

No ruling out the possibility that stage two ends without stage three.

Watching the STAR Market 50 is also an option.

The current structure remains a downward rebound; cherish it.

Yaxiang Integration

Based on performance independence logic, three limit-ups are almost reached, nearing a new high in history.

The dark line also relates to storage logic; they are building clean rooms for storage.

Expect to get work from Micron’s Singapore factory, but that’s just hype; no concrete evidence yet.

Today, I finally felt the thrill of institutional computing power stocks’ rebound momentum.

The helplessness and indignation of emotion-driven computing power stocks not keeping pace—nothing to do with us.
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Fortunately, today we are on the opposite side.**

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Shun Na Shares**

Because today’s not a divergence exhaustion point for electricity stocks, tomorrow there’s no expectation of a strong breakout.

Tomorrow morning, the electric sector will continue divergence until exhaustion, then start to rebound.

Normal expectation is to resist one more opening divergence.

The best scenario is a high open, releasing divergence, then turning divergence into convergence, then back to divergence.

Yesterday was weak; today turned strong.

It’s possible that some of the weak stocks today will turn strong tomorrow, like Guxin Energy.

The non-weak ones, like Huadian Energy and Jinkai New Energy.

The biggest risk is a pattern like Meiliyun’s—wanting to turn into convergence but then stagnating the next day.

Since it’s defined as a decline phase, the future is about capturing the recovery of this decline.

No longer expecting the sector to hit new highs on the right side; it’s about continuing the main upward extension.

So, the follow-up is not very suitable for relay.

Better to front-run and leave the weak stocks behind, keep the strong ones.

The best scenario is a decline exhaustion + rebound tomorrow, then a half-day or one-day continuation, which would be very strong.

The worst scenario is a decline exhaustion + rebound tomorrow, then a sharp decline the day after. Such scripts are common in recent years.

So, no more top-topping dragon head plays.

Shun Na Shares, whether to run or stay tomorrow, depends on whether they leave us or not.

If they want to hold, they need to show strength, ideally hitting limit-up within the first hour.

The later they hold, the less they want to stay.

Birthday outing, no video tonight

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A thought-provoking question:

The use of sentiment cycles isn’t limited to consecutive limit-ups and trend flows.

Institutional stocks can still be used.

By separating Longfei Fiber Optic and Jinhai Tong,

who are the stocks that can be distinguished from Longfei Fiber Optic in the future?

If you want to learn deeply, check the blogger’s homepage.

Below are many publicly available articles full of practical insights.

Collection of practical articles (large amount of dry goods) directory

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLtZQLAfB
Historical review of sentiment cycles—learning from history to understand rise and fall.

https://www.tgb.cn/a/1RHLnbweBJA
Sentiment cycle video explanation—everyone says it’s good, maybe you should watch it too?

https://www.tgb.cn/a/22nLmcWyh3R

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Disclaimer: I only record my own operations and do not force everyone to follow. Please trade cautiously. This blog only documents my own actions.
(Investment involves risks; trading should be cautious. Plans are never faster than the market; everything follows the market. The content is based on personal ideas and records, only for sharing and reflection, not investment advice. Buy and sell at your own risk!)