Why the altseason continues to be delayed in the current bull cycle

While Bitcoin continues to demonstrate impressive growth rates, the altcoin season has yet to arrive, disappointing many market participants. The current bull cycle has been especially tough for altcoin holders, as the expected influx of capital into this asset class keeps being delayed. Market analysts offer an unexpected explanation for this phenomenon, which is less about the altcoin season itself and more about liquidity redistribution in the market.

The Altcoin Season Obstacle: Ethereum Cannot Break Through the Critical Level

Since Bitcoin began its significant rise, most altcoins have shown sluggish performance. Except for a few projects — ONDO, FET, and SUI — which reached new all-time highs early in the cycle, the rest of the altcoins have failed to replicate the success of the leading cryptocurrency. Later, some progress was seen in SOL and BNB, but a true explosive growth still hasn’t occurred.

A key point that analysts focus on is Ethereum. The second-largest cryptocurrency has yet to break its trend: despite attempts to surpass the historic level of $4,800, it only slightly exceeded it ($4,900) in Q3 of last year. As of March 2026, ETH is trading significantly lower — around $2,270 — indicating ongoing pressure on the altcoin season. Experts believe that a full altcoin season remains unlikely until Ethereum establishes a new stable level above $5,000.

How Liquidity Blocks the Arrival of Altcoin Season and Where Investments Are Going

The paradox of the current market is that, despite a huge amount of free capital, the altcoin season has not yet arrived. According to analysis, Bitcoin has increased nearly 8.5 times from its low of $15,400 (November 2022). However, at the current value of $73,670, a pullback from the all-time high of $126,080 is evident. Meanwhile, US stock indices are at record highs, and gold has added trillions to its market capitalization.

Instead of flowing into altcoins, all available liquidity has concentrated in low-risk assets. Investors, guided by caution, prefer gold, government bonds, and stocks of top companies. This means capital is stuck in conservative investments and not penetrating deeper into risky assets, where altcoin season typically unfolds.

To understand the pattern, it’s helpful to recall how previous bull markets in 2017 and 2021 developed. In that sequence, capital first flows into the safest assets, then gradually shifts into Bitcoin, followed by Ethereum, and finally into small-cap altcoins. However, this year has been marked by uncertainty due to trade conflicts and geopolitical factors, causing investors to cling to reliable assets.

When Will Altcoin Season Return to the Crypto Market

Despite the disappointment, some analysts remain hopeful for the return of altcoin season. With expected interest rate cuts and easing of monetary policy in 2025-2026, conditions for shifting liquidity into risky assets could improve. If these measures produce the desired effect, Bitcoin will gain new momentum, followed by Ethereum.

A key signal for altcoin season is Ethereum surpassing the $5,000 level. When that happens, market confidence will fully shift into altcoins, and the altcoin season will finally begin in earnest. Until then, altcoins will remain in the shadows, with traders focusing only on major assets.