World Gold Council In-Depth Analysis: Will Gold Supply Run Out?

Hot Topics

Selected Stocks Data Center Market Center Capital Flows Simulated Trading

Client App

Introduction

According to our “2025 Global Gold Demand Trends Report,” global gold mine production reached a record high in 2025: an annual output of 3,672 tons, a slight increase of 1% year-over-year, the highest in this data series (though this figure may be revised as more data becomes available). We expect that with the resumption of operations at two major gold mines, global gold production will see a moderate increase in 2026.

In previous articles, we explained why gold mine output growth often lags behind gold price movements and discussed the possibility of production stabilizing in the coming years.

One key reason is that the exploration and development of new gold deposits are becoming increasingly difficult, mainly due to:

• Political instability in many potential mining regions;
• Lengthy environmental and community approval processes delaying development;
• Rising capital expenditures; and
• The complexity of project financing in remote areas.

According to annual reports from major gold mining companies, the outlook for 2026 is generally cautious: most companies expect production to be lower than in 2025.

Without new discoveries, existing reserves will naturally deplete over time; if gold prices continue to rise, it could incentivize companies to accelerate production, further speeding up the depletion of current reserves without new deposits.

This has raised investor concerns about several issues:

• Are we facing a structural shortage of extractable gold?
• If not, when will substantial supply growth occur?
• Would major new discoveries suppress gold prices?
• Is there potential for market manipulation of gold supply?

In this article, we will provide some insights into these questions.

Gold Mine Production Slightly Increases in 2025, Reaching the Highest Level in the Series

Will Gold Resources Ultimately Be Exhausted?

This question involves two aspects: overall gold supply and gold mine output.

Our answers to both are: unlikely.

First, gold supply is unlikely to be exhausted.

Gold supply mainly comes from two sources: recycled gold and mined gold. While mine production may stabilize, recycled gold comes from multiple sectors.

As shown below, the total above-ground gold stock amounts to 219,891 tons. Since gold is nearly indestructible, under certain market conditions, almost all above-ground gold could re-enter the market.

For example, when gold prices rise, consumers may sell jewelry, and industrial gold may be recycled—these factors are far more sensitive to gold prices than mine production.

Above-ground and underground gold stocks

Second, accessible gold resources are far from depleted.

According to Metals Focus, by the end of 2025, global gold reserves are estimated at about 54,770 tons (i.e., the economically mineable portion of deposits as of 2025 under current conditions); the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates reserves at around 64,000 tons.

Reserves represent the total amount of gold in deposits based on geological evidence and sampling, including both economically viable and non-viable portions. According to Metals Focus, resource estimates are about 132,110 tons.

Many mistakenly believe that, at the 2025 mining rate, proven reserves can only sustain about 15 years of production. However, despite ongoing extraction, estimates of underground gold stocks have remained stable for decades.

This stability is due to several factors that may persist:

• Rising gold prices make previously uneconomical low-grade deposits viable—turning resources into reserves.
• New gold resources are still being explored, albeit at a slower pace. When new deposits are discovered, companies confirm sufficient reserves through drilling to justify project development. As some deposits are mined, further exploration often occurs, maintaining a relatively stable total resource base.
• After a mine is built and operational, exploration geologists typically search for nearby resources (often small deposits or satellite deposits) to supplement reserves.
• Advances in technology, such as improved geological modeling and deeper underground mining techniques, could help discover new deposits and extend reserve life. Theoretically, gold exists deep within the crust or even on the ocean floor, but current technological, cost, and ESG considerations limit exploitation.

In summary, although easily accessible and cost-effective gold deposits may be exhausted—assuming no new discoveries—technological progress and high gold prices could make previously uneconomical resources feasible to mine.

How Would Significant Changes in Gold Mine Output Affect Gold Prices?

Changes in gold mine production generally only impact prices over the long term; short-term effects are modest.

First, any new large gold deposit is unlikely to be big enough to significantly impact the market. For example, Metals Focus reports that in 2024, the largest gold mine was Uzbekistan’s Muruntau, producing 65 tons. Compared to the global total of 3,650 tons, this is negligible.

Second, as previously mentioned, from exploration to full production, new gold mines typically take over a decade. The market has ample time to absorb this information, gradually pricing in expectations, so short-term impacts are limited.

Compared to total global gold mine output, the largest single mine’s contribution is minimal.

Using our Quarum valuation model, a supply increase/decrease of about 25 tons correlates with roughly a 1% change in gold price, assuming other factors remain constant. However, both our model and real-world mechanisms are more complex. For instance, an increase in mine output that lowers prices might stimulate demand for jewelry and industrial gold, offsetting some downward pressure.

Additionally, a decline in gold prices could reduce recycled gold supply, counteracting the effect of increased mine output. Moreover, supply and demand changes across different segments may not occur simultaneously, adding complexity. Ultimately, gold prices are determined by the overall supply-demand balance.

Can Gold Producers Collude to Influence Supply?

The answer is: almost impossible in reality.

First, gold supply comes from multiple sources: mine production and recycling. If producers colluded to restrict output to push prices higher, recycled gold would likely increase as gold prices rise, exerting downward pressure on prices. Currently, above-ground gold stocks are 219,891 tons, and recycled gold has significant potential—though not all gold can be quickly mobilized.

Second, the gold mining industry is widely dispersed globally, with low industry concentration. The top ten producers account for only about 27% of total global output. Convincing all producers to act collectively is extremely difficult, especially considering artisanal and small-scale mining (ASGM), which accounts for roughly 20% of new gold supply in 2024 and is unlikely to respond to collusion efforts. Furthermore, coordinated market manipulation or cartel behavior is illegal in many jurisdictions.

The industry’s low concentration and widespread distribution make collusion highly unlikely.

Summary

Despite rising gold prices, global gold mine output has only grown modestly, raising concerns about long-term sustainability. The risk of “easy-to-mine” gold reserves being exhausted appears limited, especially with technological advances and high prices potentially unlocking previously uneconomical resources. Additionally, the substantial above-ground stockpiles, though not all immediately liquid, can help offset supply shortfalls when conditions permit.

Even large new mine projects have limited short-term impact on prices. Our model indicates that a 25-ton change in supply corresponds to about a 1% price fluctuation, but real market dynamics are far more complex. The dispersed nature of gold production, widespread artisanal mining, and recycling further reduce the likelihood of coordinated supply restrictions, supporting long-term market stability.

[1] Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council

Prior to most companies releasing quarterly reports, we publish fiscal year 2025 and Q4 data, so final figures may differ from our estimates. Revisions to gold supply data are usually concentrated in recent quarters. For example, Indonesia’s government revised its 2015 and 2018 gold production estimates upward by 7 and 5 tons, respectively.

[2] Based on Metals Focus forecasts as of 2025. Reserves refer to the economically recoverable part of deposits, determined through geological, mining, processing, market, economic, and ESG considerations. Only the economically viable portion is classified as reserves. Feasibility-stage deposits are generally included. Reserves are divided into proven and probable categories. Resources refer to the broader geological estimate, including less certain quantities, often derived from limited drilling and simple economic models, sometimes without detailed analysis. Different agencies may have varying estimates; for example, USGS’s forecast for reserves is about 64,000 tons.

Source: Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, World Gold Council

[3] Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council

Further exploration requires upfront investment, and mines with a reserve life exceeding about 20 years are less favored by stock markets.

See details in: Mantle oxidation by sulfur drives the formation of giant gold deposits in subduction zones | PNAS, December 19, 2024

See details in: Gold in seawater - ScienceDirect, May 1990

See details in: Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG)

[4] Data as of 2024 due to availability limitations.

Source: Metals Focus, World Gold Council

See details in: Understanding ASGM: A Vital Segment of the Gold Sector | World Gold Council, June 27, 2025

See details in: The Antitrust Laws | Federal Trade Commission and International Competition Law: A Global Perspective for Multinational Corporations - Michael Edwards