Kalshi markets show that the probability of U.S. lawmakers being banned from trading individual stocks before 2027 is only 15%, while the likelihood of a ban by January 2029 rises to 57%. Similar prediction markets on Polymarket indicate a 22% possibility of a ban this year. Despite disclosure requirements under the 2012 STOCK Act, trading by multiple lawmakers, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, has remained under close scrutiny, and the debate continues.