Hexun Investment Advisor Feng Lushun: How will commercial aerospace proceed next on March 16?

On March 16, let’s analyze the trend of the commercial aerospace sector. Today, the sector experienced a volume contraction adjustment, clearly showing that the support below is not very strong. Why is the support so weak? Let’s analyze it through the relationship between volume and price.

First, from the perspective of the long-term retracement theory. For any sector to surge significantly, it usually needs to go through a major long-term retracement, similar to a car adding fuel; after refueling, the momentum will be stronger. Currently, the commercial aerospace sector is retracing the May moving average line, but hasn’t fully reached it yet. It’s very close to the May line, indicating there is still room. However, since the May line is moving upward, if the stock price’s lows remain unchanged, the retracement amplitude will also change accordingly.

Next, we need to focus on the daily chart structure. After the retracement, the daily moving averages must form a bullish alignment to support a sustained rise. Currently, the 5-day moving average has not yet crossed above the 10-day moving average, and the MACD has not turned red, indicating there is no potential for continuous upward momentum. This area still needs further consolidation.

Looking at short-term indicators, they haven’t bottomed out yet, and further decline is expected. When might it turn around? Likely near the May moving average line. When many investors can’t bear the losses and start to cut positions, opportunities may arise. The current closing price is 2,254 points, with the May line at 2,174 points, leaving about 80 points of space—more than two points of potential decline.

Therefore, this direction requires patience. Two entry points can be considered: one is near the May line retracement, and the other is waiting for the moving averages to form a bullish alignment, i.e., the 5-day crossing above the 10-day and the MACD turning red. For safety, it is recommended to wait until the second signal appears before acting.

（Editor: Zhang Yan）

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