Before00zero

- The imitators and the broader context of the Treasury Department:
The growth of companies mimicking strategies continues, with more than 191 public companies holding Bitcoin in their treasury reserves, according to Bitcoin Treasuries data.
Many of these public companies follow a buy-and-hold strategy for stocks and bonds similar to Strategies, but mining companies like Marathon Digital (MARA) combine production with stock retention. Other companies, such as Metaplanet, have global appeal as an inflation hedge.
As with Strategy, the stock prices of these companies have fallen between 50% and 80% from their peak in 2025, and net asset value premiums are shrinking as Bitcoin's performance falls short of expectations. See the example in the chart below.
Stock prices of MARA, Metaplanet, and Twenty One Capital
A report from CryptoQuant indicated that Bitcoin treasury companies that raised capital through PIPEs have experienced significant declines in stock value, with stock prices often trending toward their PIPE issuance levels.
The analyst concluded that the ongoing rise in Bitcoin's price is the only potential catalyst to prevent further declines in these stocks. Without it, many are expected to continue falling toward or below their private market prices.

- The strategy shows a weak net asset value premium:
The Net Asset Value (NAV) premium indicator (NAV) measures the market's valuation of the company relative to its Bitcoin holdings and other assets, excluding liabilities. The current net asset value premium is -18.12% (0.82x), meaning the market values MSTR at 82% of its Bitcoin holdings per share (excluding the value of other businesses).
This indicates that investors are currently unwilling to pay a premium for the Strategy company's leveraged Bitcoin exposure, as concerns about dilution, rising debt costs, and sideways Bitcoin performance affect sentiment — making it difficult for MSTR to raise low-cost capital for further Bitcoin accumulation without pressuring shareholders.
However, during strong market booms, this premium has often ranged from 1.5x to 2.5x, allowing the Strategy company to raise capital at a low cost and increase the Bitcoin price per share.

- Stock Market Performance and Challenges in 2025
The share price of "Strategic" (MSTR) on the weekly chart has sharply declined from its yearly high of $457.22 on July 14 to its lowest point at $155.61 on December 1, a decrease of over 63%. The stock is currently trading near $160, approaching its lowest annual level and below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $184.09.
Weekly MSTR Chart
There are several reasons behind this correction in MSTR's price.
The sharp rise in Bitcoin's price to a record high of $126,199 on October 6, followed by a decline below the annual opening level of $93,576, and its current trend toward the lowest annual level at $74,508, have resulted in a weak or slightly negative performance in 2025 as the year approaches its end. Since MSTR is leveraged as a debt-funded bet on Bitcoin, its share price fluctuates more than Bitcoin's price, leading to significant losses for investors despite their holdings remaining steady.
Weekly BTC/USDT Pair Chart
Additionally, "Strategic" primarily finances its Bitcoin accumulation through convertible bonds, preferred shares, and stock offerings in the market, rather than selling Bitcoin. As a result, a large portion of its old debt is inexpensive. However, new borrowing and preferred shares carry much higher costs, leading to increased interest payments and annual profits.
Furthermore, repeated issuance of shares dilutes current investors' stakes, making each share represent a smaller slice of the company and its Bitcoin holdings. Consequently, in a strong and volatile 2025, characterized by notable quarterly fluctuations in the Bitcoin market, this has become a problem for "Strategic." The company can no longer easily raise cheap capital, while rising financing costs and shareholder dilution put pressure on cash flows and negatively impact the stock price, even if Bitcoin's price does not decline sharply.
Potential exclusion risks from indices, such as those caused by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), could lead to the removal of Bitcoin-dominated companies (more than 50% of assets) from major stock indices, thus treating them more as investment tools than operational companies.
If the Strategic index is excluded, passive funds and ETFs tracking these indices will be forced to sell MSTR shares, resulting in outflows worth billions of dollars. Additionally, investors are likely to redirect their capital from highly volatile assets, such as leveraged Bitcoin alternatives like MSTR, toward more stable assets. This development could lead to decreased liquidity and institutional demand, potentially triggering a downward spiral in MSTR stock prices.

- Strategic and other Bitcoin treasury management companies are under pressure as market momentum slows:
Sharp rises and deep corrections in Bitcoin's price have led to stable or slightly negative performance in 2025, putting stress on corporate treasury models related to Bitcoin.
Strategic's stock has fallen more than 60% from its yearly high, resulting in a sharp decline in net asset value premiums.
Treasury companies that raised capital through private investments in public equities have experienced significant declines in their share values, as stock prices often revert to issuance levels.
Bitcoin bonds (BTC) issued by Strategies (MSTR) and other companies remain under pressure, as Bitcoin's volatile performance in 2025 — characterized by sharp gains and deep corrections — has led to stable or slightly declining annual returns. MSTR's stock price has fallen over 60% from its highs this year, while competing companies that raised capital through private investments in public equities (PIPE) have experienced similar declines, reaching their issuance levels.
Strategy: The Largest Institutional Owner of Bitcoin:
Michael Saylor's Strategy Company, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is a US-based business intelligence (BI) and mobile software company that has treated Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset since August 2020.
As shown in the chart below, the company has accumulated 671,268 Bitcoins in reserves, valued at $60.04 billion, at an average price of $74,972 per Bitcoin. This makes it the largest Bitcoin reserve management company in the world, holding 3.19% of the total Bitcoin supply of 21 million.
Bitcoin Holdings Strategy Chart. Source: BiTBO
The company raises capital through convertible bonds, preferred shares, and market offerings to purchase Bitcoin, even during price declines.
In addition to these capital-raising methods, the company announced on November 30 the creation of a dedicated US dollar reserve, fully funded through the issuance of new common shares of MSTR in the (ATM) market.
The reserve explicitly aims to cover:
Cash distributions to Strategy's preferred stock classes (approximately $700 million annually).
Interest on its outstanding convertible bonds.
Short-term liquidity needs in case of tightening capital markets.
These reserves are managed separately from the company's Bitcoin reserves, making "Strategic" a dual-reserve entity for the first time. As of December 22, Strategy increased its US dollar reserves by $748 million to $2.19 billion, an amount sufficient to cover approximately $700 million of annual preferred stock dividends for over three years.$BTC

- Institutional Demand for Bitcoin Continues to Decline:
Institutional demand continued to decline this week. Data from SoSoValue indicates that Bitcoin spot ETF funds experienced outflows of $175.29 million on Wednesday, marking the fifth consecutive day of withdrawals since December 18. If these outflows persist and intensify, Bitcoin's price could see further correction.
Daily chart of net spot Bitcoin flows into ETFs. Source: SoSoValue
- The Calm Before the Storm:
Data from Deribit shows that Bitcoin options contracts worth $23.47 billion are set to expire on Friday. Bitcoin derivatives traders are heavily focused on high strike prices, with open interest in call options significantly exceeding that of put options, as evidenced by the put-to-call ratio dropping to 0.35, indicating a generally bullish sentiment.
Additionally, the maximum pain price of $95,000 suggests that option sellers will benefit more if Bitcoin's price gravitates toward this level by expiration, as most contracts will expire worthless at this level.
This week, QCP Capital's report highlighted that despite a decrease in leveraged positions, market contraction means that downside and upside risks remain elevated.
QCP Capital analyst said: "Historically, Bitcoin tends to experience 5 to 7% volatility during the Christmas period, a pattern often associated with year-end options expiration rather than new fundamental catalysts."

- Annual Ethereum Price Outlook: Ethereum is expected to experience growth in 2026 amid regulatory clarity and institutional adoption.
Ethereum needs to surpass $5000 in 2026 to break out of its four-year shadow, following a mixed 2025 that saw significant declines and new all-time highs.
The launch of corporate treasury bonds (ETH), favorable crypto policies, and inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETF) gave Ethereum the momentum it lacked for years in 2025.
Regulatory clarity, institutional adoption, and major network upgrades could serve as catalysts for Ethereum's growth in 2026.
Ethereum (ETH) lost 12% of its value in 2025, declining from $3336 at the start of the year to $2930 in the third week of December, a stark contrast to its 48% gains in 2024. However, this percentage does not reflect the significant volatility Ethereum experienced in 2025.
In Q1, Ethereum (ETH) sharply declined by 45% due to the impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, which nearly wiped out all its gains from 2024. While the entire crypto market was in a downtrend during that period, Ethereum's value fell more than most leading cryptocurrencies, reinforcing the idea of its weaker performance compared to Bitcoin. Hedge funds increased selling pressure by liquidating short positions based on Ethereum's price.
Nevertheless, the leading altcoin showed resilience, rebounding in Q2 after the Pectra upgrade. After stabilizing at $1385 in early April, ETH surged, ending the quarter with a 37% gain.
Unlike the past two years, which saw declines in Ethereum's price, its growth accelerated in Q3, posting a 66% gain, its best quarterly performance ever. Thanks to strong buying activity from corporations and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Ethereum hit an all-time high of $4956 in August, after four years.
However, Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on China resurfaced on October 10. Concurrently, a proposal from index provider MSCI to exclude corporate crypto bonds from its stock indices led to the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history, exceeding $19 billion.
Daily ETH/USDT Chart
Since then, Ethereum has remained under pressure, declining about 29% so far in Q4.
Entering 2026, the market structure shows a neutral trend, with excessive leverage already cleared. Investors expect Ethereum's price to rise above its all-time high if macroeconomic conditions improve and institutional tokenization adoption continues.

Key data: Ethereum and XRP are seeing inflows into exchange-traded funds amid continued outflows of Bitcoin.
The spot exchange-traded funds in the Ethereum market broke a seven-day streak of outflows, with inflows reaching nearly $85 million on Monday.
Investment flows have seen a noticeable recovery despite the prevailing aversion in the cryptocurrency market, indicating a potential improvement in the performance of institutional investors. Cumulative net flows reached $12.53 billion, while the value of net assets stood at $18.20 billion.
Ethereum Exchange-Traded Fund Statistics.
On the other hand, the XRP-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continued their steady cash flows, attracting nearly $44 million on Monday. Since their launch in mid-November, these funds have not experienced any cash outflows. The cumulative net cash inflows amounted to $1.12 billion, while the net asset value reached $1.25 billion.
XRP Exchange-Traded Fund Statistics.
Despite the continuous inflows of exchange-traded funds, XRP is facing a weak derivatives market, with the value of open futures contracts dropping to $3.46 billion on Tuesday from $3.54 billion the previous day. Open trading volume has remained relatively low since mid-October, indicating a lack of confidence among traders in the digital currency's ability to maintain its value.
The open interest on XRP.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds continued their streak of outflows for the third consecutive day, with nearly $142 million withdrawn on Monday. According to SoSoValue data, the cumulative net inflows reached $57.26 billion, with an average net asset of $115 billion. If the prevailing risk aversion continues, the cost pressure may exceed demand, increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin's price falling to around $80,000.
Bitcoin ETF statistics.

Altcoin Update: rise in Ethereum price as Ripple price stabilizes
Ethereum is trading above $3000 at the time of writing this report on Monday, supported by the rising Relative Strength Index on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index appears to be on the verge of breaking into the bullish territory, a move that could enhance momentum and support the bullish trend for Ethereum.
The MACD indicator confirmed a buy signal on the same chart, as the blue line crossed above the red signal line. However, traders should be cautious in their bullish expectations, as the MACD indicator is still in the bearish zone, and the green histogram is above the steady average.
The breakout of the 50-day exponential moving average at $3195 will significantly contribute to confirming bullish expectations, and is likely to increase the chances of a sustained price rise above the resistance level resulting from the convergence of the 100-day exponential moving average and the 200-day exponential moving average around $3403.
On the other hand, failing to surpass the 50-day exponential moving average may leave Ethereum vulnerable to headwinds and increase the risk of falling below $3000.
The daily chart for the ETH/USDT pair

- Today's chart: Stability of Bitcoin price, approaching a breakout of the 90 thousand Dollar level:
Bitcoin is trading above $89,000 at the time of writing this report on Monday, supported by the upward relative strength index (RSI) at a level of 48 on the daily chart. The relative strength index itself appears to be poised for a breakout of the midpoint line at 50, which is likely to strengthen price momentum to support a breakout above $90,000.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) shows a positive divergence, with the blue line above the red signal line on the same daily chart. If the green bars continue to expand above the average line, the path of least resistance may remain upward.
Closing the price above the 50-day exponential moving average at $93,608 will open the way for an extended breakout towards the 100-day exponential moving average at $99,239. The 200-day exponential moving average at $101,987 may limit price retracements above $100,000.
The daily chart for the BTC/USD pair
However, moving averages are generally trending downward, confirming bearish expectations. Therefore, a close below the $90,000 level could lead to another wave of selling, with support at the $83,822-$84,450 level within reach.

Data in the spotlight: Selective order on exchange-traded funds maintains inflows of XRP while BTC and ETH experience outflows.
Bitcoin continues to face a noticeable decline in institutional interest, with a decrease in demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Bitcoin exchange-traded funds listed in the United States recorded outflows of approximately $158 million on Friday.
The cumulative net inflows reached $57.41 billion, while the net assets amounted to approximately $114.87 billion, according to SoSoValue data. If the outflows continue, market sentiment may deteriorate further, limiting price increases to below $100,000.
Bitcoin ETF Statistics | Source: SoSoValue
Ethereum exchange-traded funds witnessed outflows of approximately $76 million on Friday. Ethereum outflows have continued for seven consecutive days, reflecting the prevailing pessimism in the cryptocurrency market. The cumulative net inflows amounted to $12.44 billion, while the net asset value reached $18.21 billion.
Ethereum ETF Statistics | Source: SoSoValue

- Today's chart: Stability of Bitcoin price, approaching a breakout of the 90 thousand Dollar level:
Bitcoin is trading above $89,000 at the time of writing this report on Monday, supported by the upward relative strength index (RSI) at a level of 48 on the daily chart. The relative strength index itself appears to be poised for a breakout of the midpoint line at 50, which is likely to strengthen price momentum to support a breakout above $90,000.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator (MACD) shows a positive divergence, with the blue line above the red signal line on the same daily chart. If the green bars continue to expand above the average line, the path of least resistance may remain upward.
Closing the price above the 50-day exponential moving average at $93,608 will open the way for an extended breakout towards the 100-day exponential moving average at $99,239. The 200-day exponential moving average at $101,987 may limit price retracements above $100,000.
The daily chart for the BTC/USD pair
However, moving averages are generally trending downward, confirming bearish expectations. Therefore, a close below the $90,000 level could lead to another wave of selling, with support at the $83,822-$84,450 level within reach.

- Boosting liquidity may support Bitcoin's recovery
Amidst the mixed feelings of institutional investors and the intense fear among traders, the "Copysale Letter X" published on Tuesday indicates signs of optimism regarding Bitcoin.
The report clarified that the general treasury account decreased to 78 billion dollars during the past week, marking the largest liquidity injection since June, as illustrated in the chart below. The analyst noted that the general treasury account is the main cash account of the U.S. government with the Federal Reserve, and that when it decreases, funds flow directly into the financial system, enhancing liquidity.
Furthermore, the Federal Reserve is injecting $40 billion into the economy by purchasing bonds. It will reinvest $14.4 billion from mortgage-backed securities principal payments to buy Treasury bills during the same period, thereby enhancing overall liquidity.
This wave of net liquidity injection into financial markets will make borrowing cheaper and encourage a shift towards risk-taking, especially in assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies, providing short-term support.