Lucaa

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$USDT.D - The dominance of USDT is currently sitting at bear-market low levels, which has been a strong reversal area over the last couple of years.
Because of this, I’ve been leaning more toward the bullish side for the broader crypto market lately.
However, until there are clear signs of weakness in USDT.D, such as the price breaking below the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, and which would also align with bullish confirmations across the broader crypto market and reclaims of important high-timeframe support ranges that were
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Google Trends for "Bitcoin is Dead" have reached a new all-time high.
Prior instances have been May 2021 and June 2022, that lead to bottom formations on the high-timeframes.
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#MyXAnniversary
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$BTC - Back in 2021, while the price was pushing higher and we were inside that distribution phase, the Exchange Balance was exploding higher.
This time, since September 2024, it has been trending down, with no signs of a durable distribution phase forming.
Meanwhile, most people on X are convinced that Q4 2026 will mark the bottom and that staying fully in cash is the safest move.
But what if the normal 4-year cycle doesn’t repeat?
What if this time the crowd is positioning for a script that never plays out, and gets caught off guard once again?
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Do you think $BTC has bottomed?
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$BTC - The price has been consolidating around the same high-timeframe support range I marked in many of my prior PAT updates at $67K over the last couple of days, and from a structural perspective, it’s looking good.
However, until there are clear signs of strength, such as the price durably bouncing off this high-timeframe support range and then reclaiming the 1D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months, confirming that the bottom is durably in and that the most likely outcome from here is a continuation to the upside, I believe the best
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$BTC - Degen longs are the reason why we can’t have nice things.
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$ETH - I still don’t like the current market structure, as the price has not yet broken back above the lost high-timeframe support range marked in purple, which I see as a clear sign of weakness.
Because of this, I believe that over the next couple of days, the best approach is to remain hedged, as I have been over the last couple of weeks following the breakdown below the high-timeframe support range marked in green at $2.7K, and to stay prepared for further downside.
Until we see clear signs of strength, such as the price breaking back above the support range at $2.15K, the most likely low-t
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GateUser-ce3fd1a7vip:
Is hedging a strategy where you buy both long and short positions at the same time, and then sell the one that breaks out for profit?
Cryptic Trades Portfolio - Q1 2026 - One-Pager
Changes in exposure:
Most of the changes you’re seeing come from portfolio performance developments that naturally shifted the percentage weight of certain positions, even without me making active adjustments. The changes I did make are:
Increased exposure in: USD, TLT, LULU, UPS, AMD, BABA, IREN, CIFR
Decreased exposure in: MARA, CLSK, MSTR, OSCR, COIN
Added: N/A
The reason I reduced my exposure to MARA, CLSK, and MSTR is because I rebalanced into other Bitcoin miners, such as IREN and CIFR, or used part of the capital to rotate entirely into def
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The Fear and Greed Index is currently showing levels of fear higher than:
March 2020
June 2022
November 2022
August 2024
April 2025
This is where winners are born.
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Yesterday, we saw NFP grow by 130K in January, while the unemployment rate declined.
Even though this isn’t bullish in the short term, since it pushes projected rate cuts further out, I believe it’s constructive over the mid to long run, as it signals that the U.S. labor market remains resilient.
Weakness in the labor market is typically one of the earliest indicators of recession.
As long as the macroeconomic environment stays resilient, I believe markets should remain structurally intact.
The main risk, in my view, is short-term downside volatility, which can be mitigated by hedging at tec
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$BTC - Degen gamblers are the reason why we can’t have nice things.
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$ETH – The price has bounced on the low timeframes; however, it has rejected at an important support range marked in purple at $2.1K, which was lost on the way down.
Because of this, until we see clear signs of strength, such as price reclaiming this lost support range, I believe the most likely outcome remains further downside into the high-timeframe support range marked in green, aligning with the early-April bottoming formation, before a more durable reversal to the upside.
That’s why I’m keeping my hedges in place to mitigate downside risk on the low timeframes.
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$BTC - V-Shaped Reversal incoming?
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$BTC - Liquidation Heatmap is looking hot.
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$BTC - Not calling for anything yet, as I believe it\'s premature without further confluences, however, the Spot Volume has reached levels that throughout this bull market have marked some of the most pivotal points.
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We’ve just shared this quarter’s Macro Report, covering the U.S. macro environment, China, cross-asset correlations, on-chain data, and my strategy going forward, making it the most important and complete report I’ve ever released.You can read it here:
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Good night.
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Google Trends on "how to short" have reached a peak.
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$BTC - aSOPR being in negative territories has historically marked most important bottoms before major reversals over the last years.Another strong confluence I\'ve been tracking.
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