Solana Plunges Over 20% in Week Amid Alameda Token Unlocks and Crash Warnings

Solana (SOL) has experienced a sharp downturn, declining more than 20% over the past week to trade around $155 . The sell-off persists despite robust inflows from new U.S. spot Solana ETFs, which have attracted over $350 million in net purchases across 11 consecutive days.

Analysts attribute the pressure to ongoing token unlocks from the bankrupt Alameda Research and FTX estate, with the latest release of approximately 193,000 SOL—valued at $30 million—on November 11 exacerbating supply overhang. Traders and commentators are drawing parallels to the 2021-2022 bear market, when SOL crashed from $260 to below $10, fueling fears of a repeat plunge to $9 or lower based on technical indicators.

What Triggered Solana’s Weekly Decline?

The drop accelerated after Alameda’s scheduled unlock on November 11, part of a monthly vesting program that has released over 8 million SOL (worth more than $1 billion) since November 2023, with another 5 million SOL locked until 2028. This predictable selling—often routed to major platforms for creditor repayments—clashed with institutional optimism, as ETF inflows hit $8 million on November 11 alone. On-chain data shows elevated whale activity, with $26 million in net spot inflows over three days, yet exchange deposits surged 15,000 BTC-equivalent in SOL terms, signaling deleveraging. Technical breakdowns below the $156 support and $160 resistance formed a potential head-and-shoulders pattern, pointing to further downside risks toward $120 or $150 if momentum fails to reverse.

• Unlock Details: 193,000 SOL released; part of escalating monthly batches since 2023.
• ETF Counterforce: $350M+ inflows over 11 days; Grayscale added options for Solana Trust ETF.
• Volume Surge: 24-hour trading up 3.77% to $59.44 billion; 47% green days in last 30.
• On-Chain Signals: RSI at 40.07 (neutral-bearish); Fear & Greed Index at 15 (Extreme Fear).
• Historical Echo: 2021-2022 crash wiped 96% value; current structure shows similar topping patterns.

Why Solana’s Drop Matters in 2025 Blockchain Trends

Solana’s plunge highlights the tension between institutional adoption—bolstered by ETF approvals and $5 billion+ daily DEX volumes surpassing Ethereum—and supply overhangs from legacy failures like FTX. Despite fundamentals like steady DeFi TVL and high developer activity, the unlocks create a “wall of SOL” that caps upside, echoing 2022’s liquidity crunch. This event underscores risks in high-throughput networks, where rapid growth amplifies volatility, and prompts questions on sustainable tokenomics amid modular L2 competition. For users, it emphasizes unleveraged strategies like spot holdings or yield-bearing wallets, as liquidations erode confidence in speculative plays.

• ETF Resilience: 11 straight inflow days; institutional confidence in PoS model.
• Supply Pressure: $1B+ unlocked since 2023; March 2025’s 11M SOL event as precedent.
• Market Dominance: SOL at 58% of crypto cap; total market dipped 2.1% to $3.46T.
• Bearish Sentiment: Traders cite 2022 crash parallels; predictions to $9 on X.
• Bullish Counter: Network processes Ethereum’s monthly volume in days; ETF staking greenlit.

How Alameda’s Unlocks and ETF Inflows Shape SOL Dynamics

Alameda’s unlocks follow court-ordered vesting from pre-2021 investments, injecting liquid supply monthly—192,000 SOL in October, similar in September—often leading to 3-5% dips. ETF inflows, meanwhile, provide a buffer: $336 million last week from firms like Rothschild and PNC, with Grayscale’s options launch adding hedging tools. The net effect? SOL consolidates in a $152–$160 range, with EMAs suggesting support at $150 and resistance at $180. A break below could target $120, while holding $156 eyes a rebound to $180+. On-chain resilience shines: DeFi TVL steady, DEX volumes topping Ethereum.

• Unlock Mechanics: Monthly releases for creditor repayment; no new emissions.
• Inflow Offset: $350M ETFs vs. $30M unlock; net positive but price-lagged.
• Technical Setup: Head-and-shoulders risks $120; RSI divergence hints recovery.
• Whale Activity: $26M net spot buys; outflows signal caution.
• Volume Context: $5B+ daily DEX; outperforms BNB Chain.

Real-World Applications and Solana’s Long-Term Outlook

Solana’s dip opens opportunities for practical uses: developers leverage its 50,000 TPS for gaming dApps like BONK Arena, while institutions use ETFs for compliant exposure to remittances via XRP Ledger integrations. For example, a fintech could stake SOL for 5-7% yields in Play Validator, hedging volatility with hardware wallets. Long-term, analysts forecast $325 by late 2026, driven by upgrades like Firedancer and ETF staking approvals under the GENIUS Act. Near-term, watch $150 support—a hold could spark 13.79% rise to $117,958 by December.

• DeFi Example: Yield farming on Jupiter amid TVL stability.
• Institutional Play: ETFs for PoS exposure without custody.
• Forecast: $101,835–$104,289 today; $114,500 November end.
• Risk Horizon: $100K BTC correlation; rebound above $180.
• Trend Projection: Modular growth offsets unlocks.

In summary, Solana’s 20% weekly plunge to $155 on November 14, 2025, pits $350M ETF inflows against Alameda’s $30M unlocks, evoking 2022 crash fears while fundamentals hold. This purge could clear paths for rebounds, emphasizing spot strategies. Monitor $150 support, ETF flows, and RSI for signals in Solana’s high-throughput evolution.