11.15 AI Daily Report: AI industry bubble risk raises warnings, crypto market turbulence intensifies.

1. Headlines

1. OpenAI's request for federal loan guarantees raises alarms, as the capital cycle model of the AI industry is strikingly similar to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

OpenAI's application for federal loan guarantees from the U.S. government has sparked widespread attention both inside and outside the industry. This artificial intelligence company is seeking billions of dollars in loan guarantees to support its costly AI model training and infrastructure development. However, this approach is strikingly similar to practices before the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, raising concerns about the capital cycle model of the AI industry.

Currently, AI companies are making large investments in expensive model training and computational infrastructure, trying to seize the market high ground through first-mover advantage. However, this high-investment, high-risk business model can easily lead to a break in the funding chain and debt crisis. Once systemic risks arise, the entire AI ecosystem may face funding depletion, waves of layoffs, and project failures.

Similar to the housing market during the subprime mortgage crisis, the AI industry also has the risk of bubble formation. Investors' optimistic sentiment about the prospects of AI may obscure the vulnerabilities within the industry. If the government and regulatory agencies fail to take timely action, the AI industry may repeat the mistakes of the subprime mortgage crisis.

In addition, the rapid development of AI technology has also brought new social and ethical challenges. Issues such as privacy, security, and fairness urgently need to be addressed. Without appropriate regulation and ethical guidelines, the development of AI may lead to unpredictable negative consequences.

2. Saylor denies the rumor of “reducing 47,000 Bitcoin holdings”, Strategy company continues to buy in

Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy, denied rumors on social media about the company reducing its Bitcoin holdings. He stated that the company is purchasing Bitcoin daily this week and has not sold any holdings.

Earlier reports indicated that Strategy Company had sold approximately 47,000 bitcoins, causing a stir in the market. However, Saylor's latest statement has dispelled this concern.

Strategy is a well-known holder and supporter of Bitcoin. As of the third quarter of 2022, the company held approximately 137,600 Bitcoins, with a total value of about 2.6 billion dollars.

Saylor has always been a staunch advocate of Bitcoin. He believes that in the current macroeconomic environment, Bitcoin is a high-quality store of value asset. Even during downturns in the cryptocurrency market, Strategy Company continues to accumulate Bitcoin on dips.

This practice reflects Saylor's confidence in the long-term prospects of Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin, as a decentralized digital asset, will play an important role in the future financial system.

The continuous buying behavior of Strategy Company has also injected confidence into the entire cryptocurrency market. During bear markets, the attitudes of institutional investors often influence retail sentiment. The actions of Strategy Company may inspire more investors to maintain patience and confidence.

3. Mizuho Securities downgraded Circle's rating to “underperform” with a target price reduced to $70.

Mizuho Securities has expressed a more pessimistic outlook on Circle Internet Group's stock. The investment bank's analysts have lowered their benchmark target price from $84 to $70. Circle's stock traded at around $82 on Friday, down nearly 40% over the past month.

Analysts at Mizuho stated that Circle's valuation fails to fully reflect the key risks to its mid-term profitability, including the upcoming interest rate cuts, relatively stagnant USDC circulation, structurally high and still increasing distribution costs, and the increasingly fierce competition in the stablecoin sector.

This prediction sharply contrasts with the views of JPMorgan analysts previously. This week, JPMorgan upgraded Circle's stock rating to “Buy” and set a new target price of $100.

Circle is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, and its business prospects are closely related to the development of the stablecoin market. As the cryptocurrency market fluctuates, the demand for stablecoins may also be affected.

In addition, Circle faces competitive pressure from other stablecoin issuers. Several companies, including Paxos, are vying for market share in the stablecoin space.

Changes in regulatory policies may also impact Circle. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reviewing the regulatory framework for stablecoins and may introduce stricter regulations in the future.

Overall, the environment in which Circle operates is filled with uncertainty. Analysts' concerns about its mid-term profit prospects may not be unfounded. Circle needs to take strong measures to address the various challenges in order to achieve long-term sustainable development.

4. The first XRP spot ETF in the United States saw a net inflow of $243 million the day after its listing, with a significant reduction in supply.

After the first XRP spot ETF was listed in the United States, it welcomed a net inflow of $243 million the next day. Meanwhile, the supply of XRP on exchanges significantly decreased, with available XRP reducing to $3.8 billion.

This phenomenon has sparked heated discussions among analysts. Some analysts predict that with increasing demand, the price of XRP could reach highs of $5 to $10 in 2025.

XRP is a cryptocurrency issued by Ripple, which has long been embroiled in legal disputes with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The launch of the XRP spot ETF is seen as an important step for XRP to gain regulatory recognition.

The launch of the ETF is expected to drive institutional capital into the XRP market, thereby pushing up its price. At the same time, the significant reduction in the supply of XRP on exchanges will also support the price.

However, some analysts are cautious about the impact of the XRP spot ETF. They believe that a single ETF product is unlikely to have a decisive effect on the price of XRP. The long-term prospects for XRP still depend on the business development of Ripple and the outcome of regulatory disputes.

Overall, the launch of the XRP spot ETF is undoubtedly an important milestone in the development of XRP. However, its actual impact on the price of XRP remains to be tested by the market in the future.

5. The market value of cryptocurrencies is returning the annual increase, and the correlation with macro risks may remain high.

Data shows that the market depth of Bitcoin has decreased by about 30% from this year's peak, indicating a significant contraction in market liquidity. At the same time, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has also given back most of the gains made this year.

This phenomenon reflects that the correlation between the cryptocurrency market and macroeconomic risks may remain high.

Max Gokhman, an executive at Franklin Templeton, stated that the correlation between cryptocurrencies and macro risks may remain high before institutions engage more deeply in the cryptocurrency market. Currently, institutional investors' allocation to cryptocurrencies is still primarily focused on Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Compared to traditional financial markets, the cryptocurrency market has stronger speculative properties and is more sensitive to macroeconomic changes. Once the macro environment changes, the cryptocurrency market often becomes the first “adjustment pool”.

However, Max Gokhman believes that as institutional investors diversify their investment targets in cryptocurrency assets, this correlation is expected to ease in the future.

At the same time, the expansion of application scenarios for cryptocurrencies will also help them break free from excessive reliance on the macro environment. Only when the cryptocurrency ecosystem becomes increasingly完善 and mature can it truly achieve “decoupling” from traditional financial markets.

Overall, the high correlation of the cryptocurrency market with macro risks reveals that the field is still in its early stages of development. Only through continuous innovation and development can cryptocurrencies demonstrate their unique value and truly become a reliable alternative asset.

2. Industry News

1. Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 mark, and market sentiment has turned cautious.

Bitcoin fell below $95,000 multiple times on Friday, down 7.5% for the week. Analysts suggest that this sell-off appears to be a mid-term correction rather than the beginning of a full-blown bear market, as losses have not yet reached capitulation levels. However, the crypto sentiment analysis platform Santiment points out that when many analysts and traders agree that the market has bottomed, the actual bottom often does not form at that moment.

The reason for Bitcoin falling below 100,000 is the weakening of interest rate cut expectations, large-scale outflows from ETFs, and reduced liquidity. Over $600 million in long liquidations and ongoing exchange concerns have intensified selling pressure, reinforcing the current adjustment. In the options market, traders are increasingly betting on volatility, with rising demand for neutral strategies such as straddles and strangles, reflecting a cautious shift in market sentiment.

Max Gokhman, an executive at Franklin Templeton, stated that as institutions become more deeply involved in the cryptocurrency market, and the investment targets are no longer limited to Bitcoin and Ethereum, the correlation between cryptocurrency and macro risks is likely to remain high.

2. The privacy coin sector has seen a widespread rally, with ZEC rising over 38%.

Against the backdrop of a widespread decline in the cryptocurrency market, the privacy coin sector has seen a general increase. Among them, ZEC briefly touched $743, with a 24-hour increase of 38.47%; DASH is currently reported at $90.32, with a 24-hour increase of 41.6%; privacy coins such as STRK, ZEN, and MANTA also saw increases of over 10%.

The strong performance of privacy coins may reflect investors' demand for privacy protection and anonymity. As regulation becomes increasingly strict, privacy coins could become a choice for investors to evade regulation. However, some analysts believe that the rise of privacy coins may only be a short-term technical rebound, and in the long term, they still face regulatory risks.

Overall, the strengthening of the privacy coin sector has attracted widespread attention from the market. Investors need to closely monitor regulatory trends and assess the long-term development prospects and risks of privacy coins.

3. The Solana ecosystem continues to attract funding, but the SOL token has dropped over 34%.

Despite the overall market downturn and significant capital outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the Solana ETF continues to attract the attention of institutional investors, maintaining a record of 13 days of inflows. However, during this time, the price of SOL has fallen by more than 34%, approaching a critical support level.

The continued popularity of the Solana ecosystem may stem from its strong technical capabilities and active community. However, the decline of the SOL token also reflects investors' cautious sentiment towards the overall market. Analysts point out that if SOL cannot stabilize at key support levels, it may trigger further sell-offs.

Investors need to closely monitor the development trends of the Solana ecosystem and assess its long-term value. At the same time, attention should also be paid to risk management to prevent potential losses from market volatility.

3. Project News

1. Aptos: The Emergence of a New Blockchain Ecosystem

Aptos is an emerging blockchain ecosystem created by former Meta employees. The project aims to build a high-performance, scalable, and secure blockchain platform. Aptos uses the Move programming language and a new consensus mechanism to achieve high throughput while ensuring decentralization.

Latest Update: Aptos officially launched its mainnet in October 2022 and conducted its first token airdrop event in November. The project has recently released several technical updates, including the introduction of a new governance module and optimization of the consensus algorithm. In addition, the Aptos ecosystem is rapidly developing and has attracted multiple DeFi, NFT, and GameFi projects.

Market Impact: As a brand new blockchain ecosystem, Aptos is expected to bring new vitality to the industry. Its high performance and scalability are anticipated to address some of the current pain points faced by blockchain. At the same time, the emergence of Aptos will intensify the competitive landscape in the blockchain field.

Industry feedback: Analysts believe that Aptos has enormous development potential but also faces numerous challenges. Some investors express concerns about Aptos's token economic model and governance structure. However, there are also experts who believe that Aptos's technological innovations are worth noting. Overall, there are differing opinions within the industry regarding Aptos.

2. Sui: A new generation blockchain driven by Move language

Sui is a new blockchain project built on the Move language, initiated by former Meta employees. The project aims to create a highly composable, scalable, and secure blockchain platform. Sui adopts an innovative parallel execution model and a new consensus mechanism.

Latest updates: Sui announced its technical roadmap in May 2022 and officially launched its mainnet in October. Recently, the Sui ecosystem has been developing rapidly, attracting multiple DeFi, NFT, and GameFi projects to join. In addition, Sui has launched a token airdrop event to incentivize community builders.

Market Impact: As a brand new blockchain ecosystem, Sui is expected to bring new innovative momentum to the industry. Its high composability and parallel execution model are expected to address some of the pain points currently faced by blockchain. At the same time, the emergence of Sui will also intensify the competitive landscape in the blockchain field.

Industry feedback: Analysts believe that Sui has immense development potential, but also faces numerous challenges. Some investors express concerns about Sui's tokenomics and governance structure. However, some experts believe that Sui's technological innovations are worth paying attention to. Overall, there are differing opinions within the industry regarding Sui.

3. Gensyn: AI-driven We computing platform

Gensyn is an AI-based We computing platform designed to provide powerful computing capabilities for the blockchain ecosystem. The project combines AI and blockchain technology to offer efficient and scalable computing resources for decentralized applications.

Latest news: Gensyn recently completed several million dollars in funding and released its technology roadmap. The project plans to launch its testnet in 2023 and gradually open its AI-driven computing services. In addition, Gensyn has partnered with several blockchain projects to provide computing support.

Market Impact: As an innovative We computing platform, Gensyn is expected to bring a new driving force for the blockchain ecosystem. Its AI-driven computing power can significantly enhance the performance and efficiency of decentralized applications, thereby promoting progress across the entire industry.

Industry feedback: Industry insiders have high hopes for Gensyn, believing it is expected to solve the pain points of insufficient blockchain computing power. However, some are concerned about the degree of decentralization of Gensyn and its competitiveness against traditional cloud computing platforms. Overall, Gensyn has received widespread attention in the industry.

4. Hyperbolic: Revolutionary We Computing Infrastructure

Hyperbolic is a project aimed at building a We computing infrastructure. It combines various technologies such as distributed systems, cryptography, and artificial intelligence to provide high-performance, secure, and scalable computing resources for the blockchain ecosystem.

Latest News: Hyperbolic has recently completed a multi-million dollar funding round and released its technical roadmap. The project plans to launch its testnet in 2023 and gradually open its distributed computing services. Additionally, Hyperbolic has established partnerships with several blockchain companies to provide computing support.

Market Impact: As an innovative We computing infrastructure project, Hyperbolic is expected to bring a new impetus for development to the blockchain ecosystem. Its distributed computing capabilities can significantly enhance the performance and efficiency of decentralized applications, driving progress across the industry.

Industry feedback: Insiders have high hopes for Hyperbolic, believing it is expected to address the pain point of insufficient blockchain computing power. However, some are concerned about the degree of decentralization of Hyperbolic and its competitiveness against traditional cloud computing platforms. Overall, Hyperbolic has received widespread attention from the industry.

4. Economic Dynamics

1. Federal Reserve officials send mixed signals of hawkish and dovish, with uncertainty in the inflation outlook.

Economic Background: The US economy experienced a slow recovery in 2025, with GDP growth maintaining a moderate level of around 2%. The inflation rate exceeded 5% at the beginning of the year but gradually fell back to around 3%. The job market remained relatively robust, with the unemployment rate hovering around 4.5%. However, the inflation outlook still carries uncertainty, and the Federal Reserve has been working hard to achieve its inflation target.

Important event: Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials have released mixed hawkish and dovish signals. Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that he has not yet decided whether to support a rate cut in December, as there has been no progress towards targets in employment and inflation. Meanwhile, Governor Mester believes that recent data supports a rate cut by the Fed, stating that “all data has pointed towards dovish since the September meeting.”

Market Reaction: Investors have differing expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy meeting in December. Futures market pricing shows that investors believe the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is slightly below 50%. The US dollar index has slightly declined, reflecting an increase in market expectations for a rate cut. Bond yields have risen slightly, indicating that investors' concerns about the inflation outlook have intensified.

Expert Opinion: Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect that a slowdown in job growth may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut decisions, particularly as changes in the unemployment rate and economic conditions will become key indicators. Max Gokhman, an executive at Franklin Templeton, stated that the correlation between cryptocurrencies and macro risks may remain high until institutions more deeply engage in the cryptocurrency market.

Overall, there are differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the outlook for inflation, and investor expectations for the policy direction in December have also diverged. Inflation and employment data will be key factors influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions, and market participants need to closely monitor changes in relevant indicators.

5. Regulation & Policy

1. The U.S. Department of Justice cracks down on North Korea's use of virtual currency financing networks.

The U.S. Department of Justice announced a series of nationwide actions targeting the North Korean government's activities of obtaining funds through remote work and false identities. This action aims to combat North Korea's illegal activities of financing networks using virtual currency and fake identities.

Background Introduction: North Korea has long been subject to economic sanctions from the international community and is accused of using methods such as cyberattacks and cryptocurrency ransom to evade these sanctions. The recent action by the U.S. Department of Justice targets the North Korean regime's activities of obtaining funds through false identities and remote work, reflecting the U.S. government's determination to combat North Korea's illegal financing activities.

Policy Content: The U.S. Department of Justice has charged multiple accomplices with helping North Korean individuals obtain remote IT jobs at U.S. companies through fraudulent means. These accomplices provided false identities and placed laptops in private residences across the country, creating the illusion that North Korean workers were operating within the U.S. This operation impacted 136 U.S. companies, generated over $2.2 million in revenue for the North Korean regime, and resulted in the identities of more than 18 individuals being stolen.

Market reaction: This action has intensified the crackdown on North Korea's use of virtual currency for illegal financing activities, helping to maintain the integrity and security of the financial system. However, it may also prompt North Korea to adopt more covert methods to evade regulation, posing new challenges for law enforcement.

Expert analysis: Former U.S. Treasury Department Special Agent Jonathan Lee stated that the aim of this operation is to cut off North Korea's access to funding sources, but North Korea may still exploit means such as cryptocurrency extortion to obtain funds. He emphasized the need to strengthen international cooperation to jointly combat North Korea's cybercrime activities.

2. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission allows virtual asset trading platforms to share global order books.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued a circular, allowing licensed virtual asset trading platforms to share global order books with compliant overseas platforms for the first time, greatly enhancing market liquidity. This move is seen as an important step for Hong Kong in advancing the development of digital assets.

Background: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government issued the “Digital Asset Development Policy Declaration 2.0” in 2025, proposing a development roadmap to optimize laws and regulations, and expand tokenized products. This circular from the Securities and Futures Commission is a specific measure to implement this policy.

Policy content: The circular stipulates that licensed virtual asset trading platforms can share global order books with recognized overseas platforms, allowing investors to place orders on Hong Kong platforms and execute them directly on overseas platforms. This helps to improve order liquidity and trading efficiency. At the same time, the circular also clarifies regulatory requirements for related risk disclosure and investor protection. The new policy will take effect on January 1, 2026.

Market Reaction: Industry insiders generally welcome this, believing it will further enhance Hong Kong's status as an international virtual asset hub. However, there are also concerns that a shared order book may exacerbate market volatility, necessitating relevant regulatory support.

Expert Opinion: Chen Jiahua, Director of the Financial Technology Research Center at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, stated that this move is beneficial for attracting more international investors and exchanges to Hong Kong, but it is also necessary to strengthen investor education and raise risk awareness. He believes that Hong Kong should seek a balance between regulation and innovation to create a favorable environment for the development of digital assets.

3. The U.S. CFTC may lead cryptocurrency regulation, attracting industry attention.

As the U.S. cryptocurrency regulatory bill progresses, industry insiders believe that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ( CFTC ) may play a more important role in cryptocurrency regulation than the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ), drawing industry attention.

Background: The U.S. Congress is reviewing the “2025 Responsible Financial Innovation Act,” aimed at establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market. The bill grants the CFTC regulatory authority over the spot cryptocurrency market, while the SEC is responsible for regulating security-type crypto assets.

Policy Content: According to the provisions of the bill, the CFTC will be responsible for regulating spot cryptocurrency exchanges, market makers, and derivatives markets. At the same time, the CFTC will also formulate anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing rules for cryptocurrencies. The bill also requires the CFTC to establish a coordination mechanism with agencies such as the SEC.

Market reaction: The cryptocurrency industry has an open attitude towards CFTC's dominant regulation. ProCap BTC Chief Investment Officer Jeff Park stated that the CFTC's broader regulatory scope aligns with the industry's demand for capital efficiency and innovation. However, some are concerned about the CFTC's lack of regulatory experience.

Expert Analysis: Former CFTC Chairman Tim Massad believes that the CFTC has extensive experience in regulating derivatives and spot markets and is capable of developing a comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory framework. However, he also pointed out that the CFTC needs to obtain sufficient resources and work closely with agencies like the SEC.