Analyst: Currently, nearly 40% of BTC chips have entered a loss state, reaching the target level of the first round of decline in multiple previous bear market cycles.

On November 18, on-chain data analyst Murphy posted on social media that the 7-day average of BTC's Profit Supply Percentage (PSIP) has fallen below 70%, indicating that nearly 30% of chips on the entire chain have entered a loss state after this round of decline. If we exclude BTC that has been long-term unmoved, lost, and similar to Satoshi addresses, this proportion is expected to reach over 40%. Murphy further stated that in the first round of the bull-to-bear cycle over the past 10 years, PSIP has always touched the current position, followed by a rebound after extreme emotional suppression. This was the case in 2018 and 2020. In particular, 2020 also coincided with the 519 Black Swan Event. However, even if a rebound occurs, it may not be able to re-establish an upward trend, as there are too many chips in the market waiting to exit during the rebound.