U.S.-Ukrainian Talks: Will They Impact the Market?

Background of the meeting

On February 28, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a highly anticipated meeting at the White House to discuss the possibility of ending the ongoing three-year Russia-Ukraine war. However, the meeting ended prematurely due to intense verbal clashes between the two sides, failing to reach a substantive peace agreement.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the war has been ongoing for three years, resulting in about 20% of Ukraine’s territory being occupied. During this period, the United States has provided military and economic assistance to Ukraine. However, as the war continues, there is an increasing international call for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. President Trump, upon taking office, suspended military aid to Ukraine and stated that President Zelensky lacked a serious attitude in reaching a peace agreement with Russia.

Negotiation process

During a public meeting in the Oval Office of the White House, President Trump accused President Zelensky of pushing the world to the brink of a third world war in seeking American security guarantees. He emphasized that Zelensky’s position could jeopardize the peace process and issued him an ultimatum to make a decision, otherwise the U.S. would withdraw its support.

American Vice President J.D. Vance also criticized Zelensky for discussing policies in front of American journalists, believing that this behavior is disrespectful to the U.S. government.

President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine has been seeking peace since the beginning of the war and has proposed realistic and feasible suggestions. He stated: Ukraine is committed to engaging in constructive dialogue with the United States and other international partners to achieve a just and lasting peace. However, the intense confrontation between the two sides during the talks led to the early termination of the meeting, and the planned mining agreement was not signed as scheduled.

(Source: THE NEW YORK TIMES)

Reaction after the meeting

After the talks broke down, President Zelensky cancelled his public events in Washington, D.C., and expressed gratitude for the support from the United States. He emphasized that Ukraine needs fair and lasting peace and will continue to strive for it. European leaders expressed shock at this and reiterated their support for Ukraine. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, and Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, stated that Zelensky’s dignity reflects the courage of the Ukrainian people, who will continue to work with Zelensky to achieve fair and lasting peace.

A new round of ceasefire talks

Following the White House meeting between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky, although there was a moment of tension in the U.S.-Ukraine relationship, signs of easing have now emerged. Both sides are set to engage in a new round of ceasefire negotiations in Saudi Arabia this week (local time on the 11th). White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes stated that Ukraine has shown positive progress and is hopeful that this meeting will bring more positive news towards ending the war. According to NBC, Trump has privately told his staff that merely signing the U.S.-Ukraine mining agreement is not enough to restore U.S. aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. He has requested Zelensky to make concessions in peace negotiations, including possibly giving up some territory to Russia, pushing for elections in Ukraine, and even considering stepping down from the presidency.

(Source: NBC NEWS)

After the United States suspended military aid to Ukraine, Russia took advantage and intensified its offensive, leading to a sharp increase in civilian casualties on the Ukrainian battlefield. Republican members of the US Congress have pressured the White House to quickly restore military assistance and intelligence support. Two US government officials also hold an optimistic attitude, stating that if Zelensky’s commitments are fulfilled, the US could resume weapon supplies and intelligence sharing as early as next week. Trump also softened his stance in an interview, saying ‘We’ve pretty much started.’ Additionally, Trump posted on his social platform Truth Social, indicating that he is considering imposing massive sanctions on Russia, including banking sanctions and tariffs, to facilitate a ceasefire and ultimate reconciliation. Although uncertainties remain on whether the war can truly end, if this week’s ceasefire talks in Saudi Arabia progress smoothly, there may finally be a turning point in this three-year-old conflict. This could be a significant positive development for the global economic markets and international situation.

(Source: @realDonaldTrump)

The impact on the cryptocurrency market

The progress of the US-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations may have far-reaching implications for the global financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market. If this week’s talks in Saudi Arabia can help end the Russia-Ukraine war, global geopolitical risks will significantly decrease, reducing market uncertainty. Investors may reallocate funds to risk assets, including mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. In addition, the US may resume military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, further stabilizing market sentiment, reducing safe-haven demand, and causing some funds to flow from gold and stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC) to the more growth potential cryptocurrency sector.

If the negotiations fail to make substantive breakthroughs, or even lead to further escalation of the situation, the market may experience short-term panic, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. The potential large-scale sanctions imposed by the Trump administration on Russia, including banking operations and trade tariffs, may accelerate Russia’s reliance on cryptocurrencies, prompting the country to increase its use of Bitcoin and decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms to evade sanctions. In general, the outcome of the ceasefire negotiations will directly impact the capital flow and risk appetite of the cryptocurrency market. Investors should closely monitor the situation and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

Summary

President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky held a highly anticipated meeting at the White House on February 28, 2025. However, the meeting ended prematurely due to the inability of both sides to reach a substantive peace agreement during the verbal sparring. The breakdown of this meeting briefly strained the US-Ukraine relations, but later both parties engaged in a new round of ceasefire negotiations in Saudi Arabia, showing signs of easing tensions. The three-year-long Russia-Ukraine war has profound impacts on the global economy and geopolitical situation. If it can be successfully resolved, it will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market, reducing uncertainty and promoting investment in risk assets. However, if the situation escalates further, market panic may lead investors to seek safe-haven assets, affecting the volatility of cryptocurrencies. Investors should closely monitor the situation and adjust their investment strategies flexibly.