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The deviation of the market is the deviation of people's hearts.
The development of things has never followed our subjective expectations.
Development may really be in progress;
The market may really be strengthening;
However, our judgment on development can easily deviate from the true trajectory.
In trading, whether you earn more or less, or even lose money,
Often depends on two factors:
The accuracy of your judgment
The degree of deviation between you and the actual situation
This is why capital management must be strong to the point of being harsh.
When you feel that "this trade is a guaranteed win," and even have the thought of going all in or borrowing to go all in, **
That is exactly the moment when you should stop and take a deep breath.
Evidence of Psychological Traps
The Kelly Criterion tells us:
In a situation where advantages are determined, a larger position is not necessarily better.
Over-leveraging can break your long-term profit curve.
Soros once said:
"It’s not that I’m right more often, but that I bet big when I’m right and cut losses when I’m wrong."
Leveraging is not gambling, but rather rationally increasing stakes in a probability model that has been repeatedly verified.
Murphy's Law reminds us that:
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong at the worst possible moment.
All-in is leaving a deadly opportunity for these "worst moments."
In "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu, there is a chapter called "Nine Changes":
"The one who acts possesses wisdom, trust, benevolence, courage, and strictness."
Among them, "strictness" refers to discipline - being able to maintain the bottom line of funds and mindset in any situation.
Enlightenment
The market is not about who sees right more often, but about who dies slower when wrong and lives longer when right.
The essence of winning is not to pursue catching the trend every time, but to accumulate advantages under the premise of controllable deviations.
So, the true experts are not the ones who are always at the forefront.
but rather knowing when to slow down and when to stop,
Give funds a chance to breathe and give yourself some room to maneuver.
#TradingMindset CryptoTrading #Bitcoin Discipline