The market has now fallen below the trend, and the reasons have been mentioned: although the Fed has lowered interest rates, its "hawkish rate cut" stance (implying a slowdown in future rate cuts) has shattered the market's fantasy of continuous and significant liquidity easing.

The recent market fall is typical of being triggered by changes in macro sentiment, followed by a significant drop below key support levels that triggered programmatic selling and leveraged liquidations, forming a negative feedback loop of "fall-explosion-further fall," which exacerbated the downward trend.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart showing a significant volume fall below the middle Bollinger Band is an extremely important bearish signal, indicating that the bullish defense line has been breached. The MACD has formed a death cross above the zero line, confirming that the downward momentum is accelerating. On the 4-hour chart, there is a strong downward trend, with the Bollinger Bands opening downwards, and the price running along the lower band. The MACD has formed a death cross below the zero line and is expanding, which is a typical characteristic of a short-term bearish trend, indicating strong downward momentum, with no signs of a bottoming out yet.

In the short term, it will continue to probe for support, as it has broken through with increased volume. The market needs time to digest the selling pressure and rebuild confidence; the first support is at $108,500, followed by $103,500, and the second strong support is at $100,000 (a significant psychological level). If it falls to this level, a strong rebound may occur, but the probability of a direct V-shaped reversal is relatively low.