$BTC - Video Update

Recorded a longer video update where more in-depth into some important concepts in (data-driven) trading and build up towards my bias for the current month.

00:01 – Recap of last week's rare outcome
Recap of the bullish expectation based on weekly statistics and why the smallest bullish weekly candle in 3 years broke that expectation.

01:02 – How to properly play probabilities in trading
Explaining that even when low-probability events occur, the correct play is still to keep betting on the higher-probability outcomes over time.

02:21 – No 100% certainty in markets
Clarifying why you never say there’s a 100% or 0% chance in trading – rare events can always happen.

03:15 – Independence of events
Warning against assuming one rare event increases the chance of another. Each month or week is independent; past low-probability events don’t influence the next.

06:12 – Sticking with the system
Emphasizing discipline: even after rare events, you go back to the system and continue making the same high-probability bets.

07:05 – Monthly support levels and TA confirmation
Identifying key SR flip levels, naked POCs, and why recent dumps often create short-term bullish opportunities.

08:56 – Possibility of a reversal towards the weekly high
Discussing why the current weekly high is statistically weak and how early dumps can lead to reversals.

12:33 – Low volatility environment
Noting that small candles and muted moves show we’re still in low volatility, which limits targets and changes expectations on confidence levels.

17:24 – Bias for higher monthly prices
Concluding that despite recent anomalies, my system still favors holding the monthly low and targeting higher prices.