#每周策略推荐9月26

1. Market Review/Analysis and Robot Strategy Selection:
The sharp decline yesterday has clearly shifted the short-term trend to bearish. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum show that key indicators at the daily level indicate that bears are in absolute control. The current market is in an acceleration phase of the downtrend, and today's focus is on tonight's US PCE data, which will be a key catalyst in determining whether the decline will pause or deepen.

The first support level for Bitcoin mentioned on Monday at 108,500 has been reached, followed by a rebound; ETH has fallen to around the second support level of 3830 and initiated a rebound. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart shows a significant drop that touches the lower Bollinger Band, and the middle and lower bands are opening downward, which is an important signal of a weakening trend. Additionally, the MACD's DIF value on the daily chart has crossed below the zero line, indicating that the trend has officially moved from the previous "strong zone adjustment" into a "weak zone," and the mid-term trend has turned unfavorable.

On the 4-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding outward on both the upper and lower bands, while the MACD has a dead cross below the zero line and is widening. This is a typical characteristic of accelerating downward momentum, indicating that selling pressure is very heavy in the short term.

The PCE at 8:30 tonight will be a key variable for the short-term market trend, but the market has already reacted to some pessimistic expectations. The difference between the actual value of tonight's PCE data and the expected value will directly determine the direction.

Scenario 1 (Higher probability): Data meets or exceeds expectations (indicating persistent inflation). This will solidify the market's concerns about the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates, possibly triggering a new round of sell-offs, with the primary support level at $105,000. If breached, it may test the important psychological level of $100,000.

Scenario 2 (lower probability): Data significantly below expectations (indicating a cooling of inflation). This will bring about a "sell-off exhaustion" style of sharp rebound, with the primary resistance level around $112,000, and stronger resistance at $115,000. In terms of medium to long-term trends, after the daily DIF crosses below the zero axis, time will be needed for recovery. $100,000 is a crucial medium to long-term watershed; if it can hold above this level, market confidence is expected to gradually rebuild; if it effectively breaks below, it may open up a deeper adjustment cycle, with the next target possibly looking towards the $90,000 - $92,000 area.

The technical form of Ethereum is also weak, even weaker than Bitcoin.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour level shows signals of a slowdown in downward momentum, which may indicate a short-term oversold correction or a continuation of the downtrend, but it is far from forming a reversal signal, and it requires volume confirmation. The daily chart is in sync with Bitcoin, with the DIF crossing below the zero axis, confirming a mid-term trend reversal to bearish. The price has dropped significantly below the lower Bollinger Band, indicating severe panic selling.

Short-term follows BTC, but with greater volatility. $3,800 is the key support level in the near term; if it breaks, the next target is $3,500. The strong resistance level above has shifted down to the $4,000 - $4,100 range.

The strategy suitable for the current market is: BTC spot Martingale + ETH contract grid shorting.

2. Robot Combat Strategy Reference
Strategy Recommendation 1: If the price drops but reaches a key support level, you can position BTCUSDT spot Martingale.
How much to add to position when it drops: 1.5%;
Maximum increase in position: 6;
Take profit ratio per round: 2%;

Strategy Recommendation 2: Weakness in market decline will be higher, you can position a short using the ETHUSDT contract grid.
Price range: $3650 - $4280;
Number of grids: 50
Estimated strategy execution time: September 26 - September 30;

Warm reminder: The above content is for reference only and should not be considered as investment advice. You can consult more information to make reasonable investment decisions.

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