US inflation rises to 2.69%, reaching a new high since January; will Powell turn hawkish?

The U.S. inflation index has risen again, currently climbing to 2.69%, marking the highest level since January 2025. This upward trend has sparked market speculation, with some opinions suggesting that this may be an important reason for the White House to postpone the release of this month's CPI data.

From the data background, the recent rise in inflation in the United States is not an isolated phenomenon. In October, the U.S. CPI year-on-year increased from 2.4% to 2.6%, while the core CPI year-on-year remained at a high of 3.3%. Factors such as housing inflation's stickiness continue to support the inflation center. Additionally, in January 2025, the CPI year-on-year reached 3.0%, which at that time raised concerns in the market about a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy due to the unexpected rise. Now that inflation has returned close to this phase's high, it indicates that price pressures have not yet eased.

The continued rise in inflation is likely to affect the Federal Reserve's policy inclination. Although Powell previously mentioned that the impact of tariffs on inflation might be temporary, the current inflation has consistently rebounded and is above the 2% policy target. It cannot be ruled out that their stance may shift to hawkish in response to the pressure of rising prices. After all, key inflation indicators that the Federal Reserve focuses on, such as core PCE, have previously been at a high of 2.9%, indicating significant inflation resilience.

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