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#美国ADP就业数据表现超出市场预期 Federal Rezerv (FED) bu ay faiz indirimi yapacak mı? CME'nin son verileri cevap veriyor.
CME "Federal Rezerv (FED) Gözlem" aracına göre, Aralık toplantısında 25 baz puan faiz indirimi olasılığı %70.6 iken, mevcut faiz oranının sabit kalma olasılığı yalnızca %29.4'tür. Piyasa genel olarak küçük bir faiz indirimi olacağına bahis oynamaktadır.
Gelecek yılın Ocak ayındaki beklentilere bakmak daha da ilginç: 25 baz puanlık bir faiz indirimine olan olasılık %54,2; sabit kalma olasılığı %17,7'ye düşmüşken, toplamda 50 baz puanlık bir faiz indiriminin (yani art arda iki kez indirim) olasılığı %28,2'ye yükselmiştir.
Faiz indirimi beklentileri artmaya devam ediyor, bu genellikle riskli varlıklar için olumlu bir sinyal.