Web3 Reading Series (3): The Original Meaning and Misuse of the "Dark Forest Theory"

“It is good to read books without seeking deep understanding; whenever there is comprehension, one gladly forgets to eat.” (Here, Tao Yuanming's “not seeking deep understanding” has a meaning that is completely different from the modern interpretation, which is just right to open the topic.)

In our era of the internet, there is a peculiar phenomenon: the speed of the dissemination of words is always much faster than people's understanding of them. By the time they go viral, their original meanings have long been dissolved, distorted, and even completely altered. “Meme” has become associated with images of cats and dogs with captions, PUA is equated with “emotional blackmail,” and the “dark forest theory” is used to describe the survival of the fittest in the crypto world… The origins of these words actually have significant backgrounds.

In this series, we will delve into the true meaning and evolution of them in a simple way.

In the cryptocurrency world, the “Dark Forest Theory” is often used to describe a competitive environment of “survival of the fittest”: kill or be killed, the early bird catches the worm, and it is even conflated with an older term, “Jungle Law.” However, its origin actually comes from Liu Cixin's proposed cosmic survival hypothesis in “The Three-Body Problem”: the universe is like a dark forest, where every civilization is a stealthy hunter; whoever reveals their position first may be destroyed. Therefore, every civilization remains silent to avoid “alerting the snake in the grass.” This novel is a top-tier work in modern Chinese science fiction, and Netflix has adapted it into a series, while the tension and metaphors in the original Chinese text are more vivid than in the English translation.

There is a complete logical chain behind this theory: in the cosmic scale game, no civilization can fully confirm the intentions of others, and the asymmetric level of technological development means that potential threats are intolerable. Therefore, the safest strategy is to hide oneself while maintaining the ability to strike first at any time. This is the result of the interplay of game theory, information asymmetry, and survival pressure, and is not a simple “survival rule in the wild.” If we use economic language for analogy, it resembles a cosmic-level “prisoner's dilemma”: for their own maximum benefit, civilizations choose a survival strategy that is not optimal for the whole.

However, the risk of misusing this metaphor also exists. Not all competition meets the conditions of the “dark forest,” nor do all conflicts need to be resolved through “preemptive strikes.” In the world of the Internet, there is no cosmic communication gap; the transmission of information and the establishment of trust are much easier than in space civilizations. Understanding the original context of this theory is essential to apply it in appropriate scenarios, instead of simplifying it to the slogan “the crypto world is a battlefield.”