So Fed Williams' declarations were enough to get markets into full hopium mode and spike the rate cut odds to 80%, but this doesn't change the fundamentals. Powell is trapped on messy data because of the shutdown and markets are acting like a cut is already locked in. He has two choices: cut in December and follow up with dovish lines, which keeps markets calm but chips away at Fed credibility, or hold steady and wait for cleaner January data, which makes markets freak out, risks a full meltdown, and makes him look a bit crazy in the eyes of the Trump administration. Either way, it's a lose-lose: protect credibility and fuck the markets, or shield the markets and sacrifice trust.Enjoy the dead cat bounce while it holds.