There is a significant divergence in market views on the U.S. stock market for December, with both optimistic and cautious perspectives coexisting regarding #十二月行情展望 .

The optimistic viewpoint mainly considers:

· Trend continuation: Some analysts believe that driven by AI innovation, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the market completing position adjustments, U.S. stocks are expected to continue rising in December.
· Historical Pattern: Based on historical data, December is a month of strong seasonal performance for US stocks, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices averaging gains of over 1.5%.
· Radical prediction: Some analysts even forecast that the market may experience a "melt-up," with the S&P 500 index potentially challenging the 7200-7300 point high.

Cautious viewpoint suggests:

· Market may be absent: Strategists from multiple institutions warn that due to the market's repeated deviations from seasonal patterns this year, coupled with the high uncertainty brought by AI, the traditional "Christmas rally" may not materialize.
· Volatility or becoming the main character: The market may not rise unilaterally, but rather exhibit higher volatility.
· Lack of Clear Direction: Some institutions believe that the overall US stock market may lack a clear direction and remain in high-level fluctuations.

Overall, the performance of US stocks in December will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (meeting on December 10), subsequent economic data, and the performance of technology stocks, which may lead to increased market volatility. While investors should pay attention to potential upside opportunities, they should also be prepared for the risks of market volatility.