#加密市场观察

Market Weekly Review: Crypto Assets Rebound Across the Board—Is This an Oversold Bounce or a Trend Reversal?

After several weeks of downward pressure and depressed market sentiment, the cryptocurrency market finally saw a long-awaited broad-based rally this week. However, a key question lingers in investors’ minds: Is this merely a technical correction within a downtrend, or the beginning of a new upward cycle? We analyze this from three dimensions: the macro environment, market structure, and on-chain data.

I. Macro Headwinds Temporarily Fade, Risk Appetite Marginally Improves

The primary driver behind this rebound is the positive shift in the external macro environment.

1. Shift in Monetary Policy Expectations: The market’s interpretation of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has changed significantly. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders’ expectations for a rate cut in December have soared from about 30% at the beginning of the month to nearly 90%. This strong “dovish” expectation has directly pushed down the US dollar and Treasury yields, providing crucial liquidity imagination and valuation support for global risk assets like Bitcoin.
2. Sentiment Recovery: The widely-watched “Crypto Fear & Greed Index” has moderately rebounded from the previous “extreme fear” territory, indicating that panic selling triggered by geopolitical and macro uncertainties has come to an end, and market sentiment is entering a recovery phase.
3. Capital Flows Reversing: After several consecutive weeks of net outflows, European crypto investment products (like ETPs/ETFs) recorded small net inflows last week. While this does not equate to a trend reversal in capital flows, it is an important signal that institutional selling pressure is easing.

II. Leading Coins Stabilize, But Key Resistance Remains Unbroken

The price performance and structure of leading assets are a direct gauge of market strength.

· Bitcoin (BTC): The price has rebounded more than 15% from a low of around $80,000, reclaiming the $91,000 level. The $80,000 area has initially formed an effective psychological and technical support. However, the $98,000–$100,000 range constitutes a strong resistance zone, formed by previous high-volume trading areas and key psychological thresholds. If the rebound cannot effectively break through this area, the current rally is still most likely a “technical bounce after overselling,” and the overall trend has not yet reversed.
· Ethereum (ETH): Successfully recovered the $3,000 level, stabilizing around $3,200, which has greatly eased market tension. Its recent strength is partly attributed to the successful Fusaka network upgrade, boosting investor confidence in the underlying network’s value and efficiency. If it can consolidate above $3,200 and challenge $3,500, it would provide stronger validation for the overall market trend recovery.

III. On-Chain Data Shows Positive Signs, Smart Money Quietly Accumulating

Native blockchain data offers insights beyond surface price action, and multiple indicators currently point to positive signals:

1. Stablecoin “Reservoir” and “Release”: During the market correction throughout November, the total supply of major stablecoins (like USDT) increased by about $1.3 billion, essentially representing funds waiting on the sidelines for safety. Recently, some stablecoins have started to flow back into centralized exchanges, indicating that some investors are ending their wait-and-see stance and preparing to redeploy their “ammunition” into crypto assets—potential buying power.
2. Core Network Confidence Unshaken: Ethereum’s staking rate has approached 30% of its total supply and continues to rise steadily. This means a large amount of ETH is locked long-term, showing that regardless of short-term price fluctuations, participants maintain firm confidence in Ethereum’s long-term security and operational value—a deep “store of value” behavior.
3. Whales and Long-Term Holders Hold Steady: The number of active addresses for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has started to recover after stabilizing, showing that fundamental network usage remains intact. More importantly, on-chain data shows that “whale” addresses holding large amounts of assets have continued accumulating in the lower price range, while long-term holders (HODLers) have not shown significant selling. “Smart money” accumulating during declines is often a key feature of market bottom formation.

Comprehensive Assessment: Repair in Progress, Reversal Yet to Be Confirmed

In summary, the current market is undoubtedly undergoing a healthy phase of structural repair. The temporary alleviation of macro pressures has offered breathing room, core assets have technically repaired, and on-chain data shows long-term investors and smart money have not exited—instead, they are accumulating during the dip.

However, it is still too early to declare a “trend reversal.” A true reversal requires stricter criteria: Bitcoin must effectively break through and hold above the key $100,000 resistance level to confirm the complete breakdown of the downtrend structure; the market needs to see more sustained and larger-scale capital inflows; and the macro-level “rate cut narrative” must be continuously validated by subsequent economic data, not just expectations.

The most fearful phase of the market may be over, and short-term rebound momentum remains. Investors can view this as a positive signal of market structure improvement, but should remain cautious regarding key resistance levels above. Until a clear breakout signal emerges, defining the current market as “bottom area consolidation and repair” may be a more prudent approach. Price action near key resistance levels over the next 1–2 weeks will provide the final answer as to whether this is a “rebound” or a “reversal.”