🔸 @bittensor enters its first halving: What scenarios for $TAO price?

📌 TAO is an open infrastructure layer for AI, where each subnet represents a small market for compute, data, or models. DTAO launched in February, accelerating expansion as new subnets continuously form, including networks that have started to reach product market fit like Chutes, which provides serverless inference for developers and is being widely integrated into AI aggregator systems.

📌 The halving on 12/14/2025 will reduce issuance from 7,200 $TAO to 3,600 $TAO per day. If demand continues to rise, the system's natural selling pressure will be cut in half. The "tailwind" comes from reduced supply and expanding demand.

📌 Grayscale has opened the Bittensor Trust to create a pathway for professional investors to access TAO. With the AI narrative remaining hot for years, TAO has the first-mover advantage in the decentralized AI space, with no competitor yet matching its current subnet scale.

📌 But no story has only one side. Halving is only effective if the network maintains user growth. If subnet growth slows, devs leave, or overall market liquidity continues to decline, even with reduced natural selling pressure from $TAO , price support may not materialize.

🔸 There are 2 promising scenarios for $TAO after the halving:

📌 $BTC resumes its uptrend, and overall crypto market liquidity returns:
- Subnets continue to expand, with networks like Chutes maintaining stable inference volume. Devs flock in due to low costs and permissionless models.
- Institutional money flows into ( Grayscale Trust, AI ) desks return to accumulate as new supply drops to only 3,600 $TAO per day.
- TAO becomes the only AI infrastructure play large enough for long-term bets (—which, in fact, is already the case ).
- Positive sentiment, demand outpaces supply. Price could start a new wave, re-pricing based on AI sector scarcity expectations.

-> Halving triggers a scarcity effect at the right time with favorable conditions. This is the best-case scenario.

🔸 Scenario 2 is the base case:
- Subnet growth occurs but is not explosive. Only a few networks achieve PMF.
- Institutional money doesn't exit but also doesn't ramp up $TAO accumulation. General market weakness cools AI-crypto demand.
- Price remains stable or drops as $BTC accumulates over 3-6 months before breaking out.

-> Network changes support $TAO accumulation until the market becomes more bullish.