Did some research on whether Lighter will launch a token before the end of the year.

Conclusion first: the probability is only about fifty-fifty.

How did I judge:

I checked the betting situation on Polymarket.

I'll explain after understanding it.

Based on @Lighter_xyz's latest valuation of 1.5B, and other perp DEXs in the same track like 👉hype with FDV of 27B and aster with FDV of 7.5B, both still very high. Normally, this 1B should be easily surpassed, so the odds are clearly mispriced.

So why does this kind of market exist? It means the market thinks there's only a 50-50 chance Lighter will launch a token by the end of the year, not a certainty.

If this prediction turns out that Lighter doesn't launch a token, then any YES bet will lose across the board.

If you want to bet on no token launch, you'd buy NO for >1B. In short, this market is still gambling on whether or not there will be a token launch; nothing else is really worth betting on.