#FedRateCutPrediction Major Banks Share Their Latest Predictions on the Fed's Interest Rate Decision Tomorrow!

What will the Fed decide in its interest rate announcement tomorrow? Wall Street’s leading banks respond.
Ahead of the critical interest rate decision the Fed will announce tomorrow at 10:00 PM Turkish time, projections from the world’s leading investment banks have become clear.

Most banks expect a 25 basis point rate cut, but agree that the statement will carry a hawkish tone. Below are the key highlights from institutions’ detailed expectations.
Morgan Stanley expects rate cuts in December, January, and April, anticipating the federal funds rate to fall to the 3.0–3.25% range. The bank believes tomorrow’s statement will send a strong signal that “rate cuts for risk management purposes are complete,” with a few dissenting votes, but no significant changes in the (dot plot).
JPMorgan also describes the decision as a “hawkish cut.” The bank expects the statement to signal fewer cuts ahead and projects dot plot projections of 3.4% for 2026 and 3.1% for 2027. According to JPMorgan, the next—and final—cut could come in January.

Bank of America (BofA) expects additional steps regarding the balance sheet along with a 25 basis point cut. BofA anticipates a tone in the statement that will make future cuts more difficult, with about three Fed members possibly dissenting. The next cuts are expected in June and July.

Deutsche Bank argues that, due to stronger growth and sticky inflation, the Fed will be cautious about further cuts. The bank expects the statement to take a more "hawkish" turn, with the dot plot shaping at 3.4% for (2026) and 3.1% for (2028). The next cut is expected in September.

UBS forecasts that a large majority of members will support the 25 basis point cut. The bank says the risk assessment could shift to a more balanced tone and expects at least two dissenting votes, particularly from Musalem and Schmid. UBS also anticipates a slight downward revision to inflation forecasts, with Powell emphasizing data dependency by stating they are "closer to neutral."

Commerzbank expects a 25 basis point cut but foresees many dissenting votes. The bank thinks Powell will balance the cut with hawkish communication and expects only one more cut before his term ends, with a stronger easing cycle beginning in June under a new chair.

Goldman Sachs supports the cut due to a softening labor market. The bank expects the statement to signal a "higher bar for future cuts," with growth forecasts revised upward and inflation forecasts slightly downward.

Citi also characterizes the decision as a “hawkish cut.” The bank does not expect major changes in the dot plot and says Powell will not fully rule out cuts in January or March, but will notably avoid a dovish stance.

Wells Fargo believes the Fed will continue moving toward a more neutral stance. The bank projects dot plot forecasts of 3.4% for (2026), 3.1% for (2027–28), and 3.0% for the long term. Wells Fargo notes that 3–4 dissenting votes are possible, the guidance could be softer in tone, and rate cuts could continue by 25 basis points each in the 1st and 2nd quarters (Q1–Q2).
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