On the eve of the interest rate meeting, aggressive rate cuts were overwhelming, and the liquidity gateway and year-end test for the cryptocurrency market were conducted; Paul launched a series of battles, with half of his colleagues opposing the rate cut.

On the morning of December 11 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision of the year. The market has almost reached a consensus that the federal funds target range is likely to decrease by another 25 basis points, from 3.75%–4.00% to 3.50%–3.75%, completing the third interest rate cut since September. Timeraus, "the Federal Reserve spokesperson," wrote: "Federal Reserve officials are about to hold another interest rate meeting this year, and up to half of the members in the meeting room may not support a rate cut. But the final decision still rests with President Powell, who seems ready to push for a rate cut despite rare opposition."
The main focus of this cut is actually the press conference after the interest rate decision is announced. As you know, Powell previously clarified that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates; this time, the "party" was pushed to cut rates, which is somewhat negative. Therefore, in the press conference, a hawkish stance is likely to be taken to offset the situation and give the market a precautionary opportunity—do not expect a continued rate cut later.
In fact, you can understand this through account reconciliation. After this cut, the interest rate will return to the neutral level of 3.5%, similar to the historical normal rate, with almost no suppressive effect. But the problem is that inflation still reaches 3% and refuses to give up, which is still far from the Federal Reserve's 2% target line, and economic data are not as exciting as expected. According to this logic, there is no real reason for the Federal Reserve to keep pumping water—in fact, this is precisely the speech Powell is talking about.
Overall, Powell’s wave may be "wanting to do so and wanting not to." The 25 basis point rate cut gave the market attractiveness, but it repeated the risks of inflation and refused to give a clear path for rate cuts. After all, disagreements within the Federal Reserve already exist. The market was waiting for clear policy guidance, but it turned out to be vague words. Although the shadow boss was cautious, Powell is the one making the final decision. If there is no precise political guidance, the market is likely to fluctuate back and forth afterward.
In fact, the core of tonight’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision is not whether rates will be cut, but where the market sentiment will head tomorrow. As he said, there is a possibility of a "hawkish rate cut" tonight, which would be equivalent to a shock to the current fragile market. If Powell delivers a hawkish speech, the market could suddenly become unbalanced. Of course, all judgments should be based on the announcement of the results. The pre-data speculation is ultimately just an inference, and the key is to watch Powell’s speech tonight, as his stance, words, and rhythm will become the pivot point for the market direction tomorrow.
Instead of waiting for a rate cut, everyone is more worried about whether this will be a hawkish rate cut in the traditional sense!