#Shininglili02

ETH Trading Review: Missing the 3029 profit-taking high and precise reversal analysis from the 2950 short entry due to a mistake in the 2892 long position

1. The core reason for missing the 3029 exit signal in the 2892 long position

This ETHUSDT long position was opened at 22:47 on December 17, 2025, at 2892.36 USDT. During the holding period, when the price surged to the key high of 3030 USDT, no exit was executed. The core issue stemmed from greed-driven misjudgment of target levels:

1. Overly optimistic subjective expectations: After the price broke through the previous resistance at 3050 USDT, it was believed that the market would directly push towards the 3100 USDT threshold, ignoring the heavy selling pressure in the 3050-3100 USDT range and the technical pullback needs caused by the short-term rally (from 2892 to 3050, a total increase of 158 USDT).

2. Selective neglect of signals: When clear exit signals appeared at 3030 USDT—such as declining volume and MACD bearish divergence—due to obsession with the "breakout and continuous rise" fantasy, profits were not realized in time. Ultimately, when the price fell back to 2950 USDT, a passive reversal short was initiated.

2. Trend signal capture for the short entry at 2950 USDT at 23:45

The short position at 2950 USDT (actual average opening price 2950.12 USDT) was a precise recognition and execution of a market reversal signal, based on:

1. Price pattern and resistance confirmation: After the price hit the 3029-3000 USDT range and quickly retreated, a "pin bar" reversal pattern formed. With 2950 USDT as the previous long exit price, it became the critical watershed for the market turning from bullish to bearish. Falling below this level signaled the complete exhaustion of buying momentum.

2. Time and volume resonance: At 23:45, a large volume of short trades occurred, with volume suddenly increasing. The hourly candlestick showed a long upper shadow. Combined with the contract market's leverage of 100x and capital game characteristics, it indicated that the short-term trend had shifted from bullish to bearish.

3. Clear technical indicator signals: Moving averages quickly turned downward from a bullish alignment, the upper Bollinger Band turned down and the price broke through the middle band, RSI dropped rapidly from overbought levels (above 80). Multiple indicators confirmed the trend reversal, prompting a decisive short at 2950 USDT, which was closed at 2782.37 USDT for a 110.72% profit.

Personal ETH trading insights from yesterday

1. Bought long at ETH 2892, saw the price break 3029 and greedily aimed for 3050-3100, missing the 3029 exit signal. Finally, I passively reversed into a short at 2950. Luckily, I kept an eye on volume and candlestick patterns, and decisively shorted at 2950, dropping to 2782, filling the greed trap. In trading, greed is forbidden; signals are king!

2. This ETH operation was a lesson in greed and a missed reversal opportunity. After the 2892 long broke 3050, I was tempted by 3100, ignoring the 3030 exit signal, and the price fell back to 2950. Fortunately, at 23:45, I saw volume spike and candlestick reversal, and decisively shorted at 2950, catching the downtrend to 2782. Remember, in contract trading, locking in profits is always better than blindly chasing highs!

3. Lesson from ETH 2892 long: after breaking 3050 and obsessing over 3100, I missed the 3029 exit signal. When I closed the long at 2950, I regretted it deeply. But it was a blessing in disguise—by observing price patterns and volume changes, I caught the reversal signal at 2950 and took a short for a 110.72% gain. Greed can blind people; only by watching signals can you accurately catch the trend rhythm.