Raoul Pal: Capital rotation may be the main reason for Zcash's surge, but a long-term bull market has not yet been confirmed.

Real Vision founder and well-known macro investor Raoul Pal recently stated that the recent sharp rise in privacy cryptocurrency Zcash is more likely due to capital rotation in the market rather than a confirmed structural bull market. He emphasized that at this stage, caution and observation are still necessary.

Pal pointed out on the podcast “When Shift Happens” that determining whether Zcash has truly entered a long-term upward trend depends on whether the overall market is strengthening and maintaining the trend, not just quick capital shifts between different sectors. “Only when the overall market continues to rise, rather than just rotating, can we confirm the trend is established,” he said.

Data shows that Zcash has had an astonishing increase this year. According to CoinMarketCap data, Zcash is currently priced at around $385, with a cumulative increase of over 690% since the beginning of the year. However, in the past month, its price has experienced a significant correction, with a decline of about 37% over 30 days, indicating a weakening of upward momentum.

Raoul Pal believes that the key for Zcash moving forward is whether it can establish a solid price bottom after a high-level correction. “What you really want to see is it finding a bottom after rising, then launching a new wave of gains,” he said. Based on this judgment, Pal is not inclined to chase the current price but prefers to wait for the next correction opportunity.

It is worth noting that amid increased volatility in the overall crypto market, Zcash has still shown counter-trend strength, with its market cap rising from less than $1 billion in August to over $7 billion in early November, attracting significant market attention.

This round of Zcash’s rally is also related to statements from several industry thought leaders. In late October, crypto entrepreneur Arthur Hayes publicly predicted that Zcash’s long-term price could reach $10,000. After the announcement, Zcash surged about 30% within 24 hours, further fueling market sentiment.

Meanwhile, institutional interest in Zcash is also heating up. At the end of November, Grayscale submitted documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, planning to convert its Zcash trust product into a spot ETF. Previously, Grayscale had successfully launched spot ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other crypto assets.

Overall, Zcash’s strong performance reflects both the phase-specific enthusiasm for the privacy sector and the role of capital rotation in driving prices. Whether it can evolve into a long-term bull market remains to be further validated by the market.