Stock Splits Fuel Wall Street Optimism: Which 2 Picks Could Deliver Triple-Digit Returns in 2026?

The Stock Split Phenomenon Reshaping Market Sentiment

The enthusiasm around stock divisions has become one of the defining narratives of 2025, captivating both institutional investors and retail traders alike. Five major corporations—Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), O’Reilly Automotive (NASDAQ: ORLY), Lucid Group (NASDAQ: LCID), Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST), and Interactive Brokers Group (NASDAQ: IBKR)—have executed strategic share restructuring this year. While these corporate actions are purely mechanical in nature, serving to adjust per-share pricing without altering market capitalization or fundamental operations, they’ve nonetheless generated considerable market attention and sparked bullish sentiment among Wall Street’s analyst community.

Netflix Positioned for Measured Gains

Netflix executed a 10-for-1 stock split division in November, and at least one major investment house sees meaningful upside potential. Jefferies analyst James Hawley maintained a positive stance, establishing a split-adjusted price target of $150 per share—implying approximately 55% appreciation potential through 2026. This projection rests on several operational strengths: North American revenue expansion accelerating to 15% (up from 9%), demonstrating resilient customer retention despite recent price increases, and management guidance suggesting 20%+ annual earnings-per-share growth across a three to five-year horizon.

The streaming company’s competitive advantages remain formidable. Its content pipeline—featuring cultural phenomena like Stranger Things and Squid Game—continues driving subscriber acquisition and ecosystem loyalty. Moreover, Netflix’s diversification efforts have yielded tangible results: the ad-supported tier now encompasses roughly 94 million subscribers as of mid-2025, while the 2023 password-sharing crackdown generated measurable profitability improvements.

However, significant headwinds warrant caution. Netflix’s announced acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (following Discovery Global’s separation)—valued at $82.7 billion in an all-cash and equity arrangement—introduces regulatory uncertainty that could suppress share performance throughout 2026. Antitrust scrutiny may prove substantial enough to overshadow the strategic benefits of accessing HBO, HBO Max, and Warner Bros.’ production assets.

Lucid Group’s Contrarian Narrative

The most polarizing stock split event of 2025 occurred with Lucid Group’s 1-for-10 reverse restructuring in September—a capital-raising necessity that typically signals operational distress. Yet Benchmark analyst Mickey Legg maintains a contrarian thesis, establishing a $30 price target that would represent 135% upside potential. This optimism was buoyed by July’s announcement of a Lucid-Uber Technologies-Nuro robotaxi partnership, committing the luxury automaker to deliver 20,000+ Gravity SUVs across six years.

The Reality Check: Execution Risk and Balance Sheet Concerns

Lucid Group’s trajectory, however, reveals troubling execution patterns that challenge analyst projections. Original 2024 production guidance of 90,000 vehicles collapsed to merely 9,000 units by year-end—a 90% reduction reflecting supply chain mismanagement and structural production challenges. The Gravity SUV, initially earmarked for 2024 launch windows, slipped to spring 2025 delivery, further eroding investor confidence in management forecasting.

The company’s financial foundation presents even graver concerns. Despite multi-billion dollar backing from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, Lucid has burned through $2 billion in operating cash during the first nine months of 2025 alone, with cumulative losses approaching $14.8 billion since inception. Building a competitive EV platform from conception through mass production demands extraordinary capital discipline—an area where Lucid has demonstrably underperformed, leaving serious doubts about whether transformative growth can materialize within a single calendar year.

Investment Implications

While stock splits generate compelling psychological narratives, the underlying fundamentals—profitability trajectory, capital efficiency, competitive positioning, and regulatory environment—ultimately determine price movements. Netflix’s near-term potential appears more grounded in observable business momentum, though M&A integration risks remain material. Lucid’s 135% upside target, conversely, depends on execution capabilities the company has yet to convincingly demonstrate, making such projections inherently speculative regardless of strategic partnership announcements.