Dear friends:

Many traders make the most common mistake of trying to guess the bottom. When they see the price drop, they start fantasizing "almost there" or "this time it must be the lowest point"; the harder the decline, the more eager they are to guess. But the reality is, bottoms are never guessed—they are worked out through action.

Why do most people lose when guessing the bottom? Because guessing the bottom is essentially fighting against the trend. In a downtrend, prices can go lower than you imagine, and can even dip below what you consider the "bottom," consuming your patience and capital. The market won't stop falling just because you think it's cheap.

A truly mature trader never insists on buying at the lowest point. They care about whether the structure has completed, whether risks have been released, and whether signals have appeared. Buying a little higher is okay, as long as the trend is confirmed, stop-losses are clear, and there is enough room for movement—this is actually safer.

I always emphasize a principle: better to miss the very bottom than to get stuck halfway up the mountain. Instead of betting on a "just right" price, it's better to wait for a "solid" signal. Confirmation of the bottom often comes from repeated oscillations and time exchanging for space, not from a single candlestick rebound.

If you find yourself always trying to buy at the lowest point, remind yourself: you are in the market to make money, not to prove how accurate your judgment is. Surviving and steadily growing are far more important than buying at the lowest. The market will give opportunities, but it won't cater to your emotions. Learning not to guess the bottom is when your trading truly begins to mature.