Recently, some analysts said that Bitcoin is extremely oversold. How reliable is this judgment? Let's look at the data first.

From a technical perspective, there is indeed evidence to support this claim. Bitcoin's RSI momentum indicator has dropped to historically low levels. Generally speaking, such an oversold condition usually indicates a short-term rebound opportunity. But here, we need to ask:

Oversold does not equal bottoming out; they are two different things. When the market trend is still weakening, liquidity hasn't loosened, and macro risks are still looming, RSI can remain in the oversold zone stubbornly, and prices can still continue to decline or oscillate repeatedly. So don't be fooled by oversold data.

A more reliable understanding is: Bitcoin is currently in an overly pessimistic state on both emotional and technical levels. This is a good time to watch for rebound signals, but relying solely on this is not enough to justify a medium- to long-term bottoming.

In actual trading, don't just focus on the oversold indicator. You need to consider the trend structure, trading volume trends, and the overall liquidity environment to make a reliable judgment. The same logic applies to mainstream coins like Ethereum.