Bitcoin Faces Late-Cycle Pressure as Long-Term Holders Increase Selling

• Bitcoin long-term holders are selling at levels historically linked to late-cycle market conditions.

• Bitcoin remains elevated in price, though internal metrics indicate slowing momentum and active distribution.

• Participation metrics stay high, suggesting engagement persists while upside faces increasing resistance.

Bitcoin is in the indicators of a maturing market cycle since the on-chain data indicates the increasing distribution among long-term owners. The price is still high, but internal dynamics indicate that it does not focus on aggressive growth anymore.

Long-Term Holders Increase Strategic Distribution

Bitcoin activity among long-term holders has drawn renewed attention following recent on-chain data. Rand (@cryptorand) noted that OG holders are selling at rates not seen in five years. Historically, this pattern appears when markets approach cyclical highs rather than early growth phases.

Source: X

The chart shows that the older coins re-enter the circulation after a long period of lying in rest. It had previously similar behavior during the previous peaks in 2017 and 2021. Emotional reactions do not affect the supply as the long-term holders are more likely to allocate supply in case of strength (the calculated position).

This selling behavior rarely triggers immediate downside pressure. Instead, it gradually limits further upside as new demand absorbs additional supply. Past cycles show this phase often leads to extended consolidation rather than abrupt reversals.

Price Structure Holds While Momentum Moderates

Since the beginning of 2023, Bitcoin has been in a clean structural uptrend. The move from the $20,000 region toward mid-range resistance reflected steady accumulation. Volatility compressed during this phase, reinforcing conviction-driven participation.

Momentum accelerated throughout 2024 as price broke above prior resistance zones. Participation metrics became more erratic, suggesting increasing speculative involvement. Such situations usually arise when investors pursue momentum at high trends.

Towards the end of 2024 and in 2025, Bitcoin was trading in the $90,000-$100,000 area. Although price remained high, internal indicators ceased to increase. This divergence has historically aligned with distribution phases rather than renewed accumulation.

Current Market Reflects Rotation Over Expansion

Bitcoin at the time of writing is trading at $87,046, after slight day and weekly losses. Price is still well above the long-term support even after the pullback. This is not a weak structuring but stability.

Participation metrics continue oscillating within a defined range instead of expanding upward. Such behavior suggests rotation among participants rather than strong directional conviction. Similar setups in previous cycles preceded prolonged sideways movement.

Rand’s observation aligns with broader late-cycle characteristics. Bull markets often peak as experienced holders exit positions methodically. Current data suggests Bitcoin is navigating that transition while market participants adjust risk exposure accordingly.