Recently, there has been quite a movement in the market, with the operations of the Bank of Japan causing global assets to react, and the crypto market followed suit. However, whether this surge is a real opportunity or a bull trap is still hard to determine.

Let’s briefly clarify the background. The Bank of Japan confirmed an interest rate hike today, which had actually been anticipated in the market, so there’s nothing new about it. What is really noteworthy is the tone of the governor’s speech — it was extremely soft, using a lot of wording to imply that future policies will be cautiously advanced and not rushed. As soon as this statement came out, the market reacted as if it had been injected with adrenaline, with stocks and cryptocurrencies surging.

The problem arises. In my years of crypto analysis, the biggest fear is being held captive by market sentiment. The rise purely driven by policy expectations actually carries a high level of risk. Is it a technical rebound (the natural pullback after a significant drop), or has it really found the bottom area? It's too rash to draw conclusions now.

Where is the real touchstone? My judgment is the performance of the US stock market tonight. Why? Because the US stock market is still the pricing center for global risk assets, and its direction can directly determine the market's overall attitude towards risk. If the US stock market catches this dovish signal and continues to rise, it indicates that the market really believes in the argument that policies will ease, and ETH and other crypto assets may have further upward space. On the contrary, if the US stock market reacts lukewarmly or even turns downward, then this rebound is mostly illusory, and we should be wary of the risk of a correction.

So my suggestion is not to rush to chase the highs. Focus on the trend after the US stock market opens tonight, as that will be the decisive signal.