#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ETH $SUI

Market Risks Behind the Weakening Yen

The central bank just raised interest rates to 0.75%, which should theoretically boost the yen, but the reality is the opposite—Ueda Kazuo's remarks have instead undermined market confidence. He mentioned that "real interest rates are still low" and that "the target won't be reached until 2027," such wording reveals the central bank's lack of confidence. The absence of a clear policy path feels like a "license" for the bulls.

The US dollar against the Japanese yen surged past the 157 mark, and carry trades became active again—borrowing yen to go long on the dollar; this arbitrage model often thrives in a loose environment. Wall Street funds have sensed the opportunity and are pouring in.

Defense is also leaking. The Treasury's calls have failed to stabilize expectations, and intervention measures have yet to be seen. Coupled with the market's sluggishness around Christmas and its weak liquidity, short sellers took the opportunity to launch an offensive. The surge in options volatility indicates that market participants are tightening their risk hedging.

What is the real issue? Once the yen's defense line breaks the 2% invisible support, non-dollar currencies will face a chain reaction. This not only affects the traditional foreign exchange market but also impacts the risk appetite and capital flows in the cryptocurrency market. This time, the central bank's action in Tokyo concerns the stability of the entire global financial landscape.