In the prediction market, there is a trader named Car, who, with his keen sense of news events and information gathering ability, made a profit of over $700,000 from a small position of $500 in two years. His story is worth dissecting.

**A case of 100x return**

11 hours before the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, Car bought in when the odds were only 3.75% (price 8 cents), and as a result, the price skyrocketed to 1 dollar, yielding a 100-fold return. How did it achieve that?

He observed that an account called "dirtycup" suddenly invested about $70,000 just before the announcement, followed by two other accounts jumping in, causing the odds to soar from 3.75% to 72.8%. Combined with the historical leaks from the Nobel Committee, hints from local Norwegian news, and the subsequent emergence of a new account investing $65,000, all signs point to insider information being leaked.

The core logic is: piecing together news fragments to trace the truth behind large unusual movements.

**Pay for Information**

To do this well, Car spends over $2,300 a month on subscriptions: Bloomberg Terminal ($2,080), Wall Street Journal ($40), Financial Times ($70), and a ChatGPT membership ($200).

**Two Key Strategies**

First, he deliberately avoids sports events. Sports competitions are purely volatile and have a strong random nature, making it difficult to demonstrate an information advantage.

Second, focus on "slow variable" events—tariff negotiations, ceasefire agreements, regulatory policies, legal lawsuits, candidate qualification certifications, etc. The progress of these events is orderly, and the market often underestimates them at certain stages, with odds gradually correcting over time. Due to insufficient speed of information dissemination, odds are often mispriced.

So his main position is political events and global major events.

**The Secret to Growing a Small Position**

Looking at it, the key to doubling small funds does not lie in frequent trading, but in having the courage to place heavy bets during those few moments when evidence is sufficiently gathered. Information-driven heavy Position is what makes the difference.