That night while scrolling on my phone, a market analyst in a discussion group shared the opinion: "Follow the pullback of BTC from the 87400 area to the 88100 area." At that time, the price was still fluctuating at a high level, and the reactions in the group were mixed. Based on my previous observations, I adjusted my holdings accordingly. The next morning, when I checked the market, BTC had already fallen to around 86873, moving in that direction. The community instantly erupted, with various showings and cheers flooding the screen, and that atmosphere of "we are one step ahead of the market" indeed made it easy to get carried away. My account also had unrealized gains, and my finger lingered over the Close Position button, which should have made me happy. But strangely, a sense of unease washed over me — I got it right this time, but what about the next time? Relying on guessing short-term fluctuations in the market to accumulate wealth, this logic itself is problematic.

Upon careful consideration, the extreme volatility of the cryptocurrency market is well-known. In such an environment, chasing every short-term turning point is like surfing in turbulent waters; the thrill is real, and the risk is also real. A single misjudgment can significantly shrink your funds. We can easily become numb from a few successful predictions, ignoring the silent cases of failure, ultimately falling into a "gambling-style trading" trap—constantly thinking about betting on the next market trend based on others' opinions.

After thinking this through, I began to reflect: Is it possible to steadily accumulate in the market without relying on such "precise predictions"? Whether BTC is at 87400, 86873, or continues to decline, is there a relatively certain logic to respond? The answer should be yes. That is to change the way of thinking - from chasing the "next price point" to building a "sustainable trading system". This means giving up the illusion of short-term precise predictions and replacing it with more rational risk management, more regular position building logic, and deeper fundamental judgment. Instead of pursuing correctness every time, it is about ensuring long-term win rates and returns. This is the real way to establish a foothold in the crypto market.