#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 The recent statements from Fed officials have stirred the market. The November inflation data looks good at first glance, but there are underlying issues — the chaos in data collection caused by the government shutdown is believed to underestimate the real rise. The official reported November CPI year-on-year is 2.7%, but once measurement noise is excluded, the actual figure could be around 2.9% or even 3.0%. This directly changes the mindset of traders.

The macro situation has returned to a state of bickering. Several key changes are worth noting:

**Market expectations need to be repriced**. The rate of interest rate cuts in 2025 has been overestimated. The trading logic has shifted from "Finally, we can celebrate the interest rate cuts" to "We need to figure out how many times and how long apart", increasing the speculative nature and resulting in higher volatility.

**The short-term pressure is real**. Higher expectations for neutral interest rates + the Fed's cautious stance = rising real interest rates + a stronger dollar. This is negative for the valuation of all risk assets (including cryptocurrencies), confirming the judgment that "the ceiling has appeared". But this is not the whole story.

**The long-term logic hasn't changed**. On the contrary—the more the Fed worries about sticky inflation and the need to keep interest rates higher for longer, the more it reinforces the significance of Bitcoin as a "hedge against fiat currency depreciation" and as a "non-sovereign asset". The macroeconomic dilemma itself has instead become a fundamental support for crypto assets; it just takes time for the market to complete this cognitive transition.

**This is how a volatile market is.** No single piece of data can make a definitive judgment, and the long and short opinions are constantly pulling in the market. Project teams must learn to get used to this noise—short-term fluctuations in sentiment and long-term product development are two different matters. While the market is still debating "whether to cut interest rates 2 times or 3 times this year," those projects focused on actual value output can stand out in an era of scarce certainty. This requires builders and steadfast holders to have stronger composure—not swayed by the ups and downs of macro sentiment, but focused on creating real social value.