IOSG founding partner: Currently it is not the top of a bull run but rather a period for institutions to build a position, optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026.

On December 21, Jocy, founding partner of IOSG, stated on social media, “2025 will be the darkest year for the crypto market and the dawn of the institutional era. This represents a fundamental shift in market structure, while most people are still viewing the new era through the lens of old cycles. A review of the 2025 crypto market shows a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation, with core data indicating institutional holdings at 24% and retail investors exiting at 66%, completing the turnover in the crypto market. Although BTC fell 5.4% in 2025, it reached an all-time high of $126,080 during that period. Market dominance has shifted from retail investors to institutions. Institutions continue to build positions at “high levels” because they are not focused on price, but on cycles. Retail investors are selling while institutions are buying. This is not the “top of the bull run,” but rather the “institutional accumulation period.” The midterm elections are in November 2026. Historical patterns suggest that “election year policies come first,” so the investment logic should be: the first half of 2026 is the policy honeymoon period and institutional allocation, optimistic about the market; the second half of 2026 will see political uncertainty and increased volatility. However, risks remain, including Fed policies, a strong dollar, potential delays in market structure legislation, continued selling by long-term holders, and uncertainties regarding midterm election results. But the other side of risk is opportunity; when everyone is bearish, it's often the best time to position. Short term (3-6 months ): fluctuating between $87,000 and $95,000, institutions continue to accumulate. Mid-term (2026 first half ): driven by policies and institutions, target $120,000-$150,000. Long-term (2026 second half ): increased volatility, watch election results and policy continuity. This is not the cycle peak, but the starting point of a new cycle. 2025 marks the acceleration of the institutionalization process in the crypto market. Despite BTC's negative annual return, ETF investors demonstrate strong HODL resilience. On the surface, 2025 appears to be the worst for crypto, but in reality, it features the largest scale of supply turnover, the strongest willingness for institutional allocation, the clearest policy support, and the most extensive infrastructure improvement. Although the price dropped by 5%, ETF inflows reached $25 billion, optimistic about the market in the first half of 2026. Key points for 2026 include: legislative progress on market structure bills, the possibility of expanding strategic Bitcoin reserves, and policy continuity after the midterm elections. In the long run, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and clearer regulations lay the foundation for the next upward cycle. When the market structure undergoes fundamental changes, old valuation logic will fail, and new pricing power will be rebuilt.”