Recently, I went through the three new contract varieties launched by a leading exchange one by one, and I really found some insights.
Observing this, the exchange's extension of the observation period is actually a good thing for retail investors. With ample time, it can at least avoid the situation of getting cut right after going live, providing more space for reaction.
From several specific cases, it can actually be seen that the performance after the contract goes live is traceable.
1. Initial volatility pattern: The price trend when a new contract is first launched usually goes through a process of bottom-fishing - rebound - seeking a peak, rather than a straight upward rise. This provides retail investors with the opportunity to gradually position themselves.
2. Volume characteristics: A genuine trend market will be accompanied by a gradual and moderate increase in trading volume, while false breakouts are often unsupported by sufficient volume.
3. Key support levels: Each new variety has an initial psychological price level, and when these positions are broken, there is often a significant volume performance.
Although these details may seem basic, they can indeed help avoid many pitfalls in actual reviews.
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SchrodingerAirdrop
· 22h ago
Damn, this theory sounds good, but why do I always feel like the one getting played...
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Searching for the bottom and bouncing back to find the top sounds easy, but in real trading, it gets confusing with a bunch of random hits.
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I feel like I can't rely on the Trading Volume, the market maker knows how to play this.
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A long observation period is indeed good, but there are still people getting wiped out.
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Psychological price level? I don’t have a psychological price level, I just jump in randomly.
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This logic feels like I’m being trapped again, next time I’ll have to pay tuition.
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I’ve heard the insufficient volume story too many times, still losing money more.
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Support level breaks out for a big pump, I believed it, but it just smashed through.
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GasFeeTears
· 22h ago
There is some truth to what you said, but I still think most retail investors can't see through these subtleties; there are plenty of people who just rush in once a token is launched.
I've seen too many false breakouts with insufficient volume, and every time someone gets trapped.
This theory sounds smooth, but there are very few people who can really implement it in actual trading.
Extending the observation period is indeed a signal, but it might just be the exchange dragging its feet; who can say for sure.
Support levels are too metaphysical; psychological price levels vary from person to person.
I agree with the process of initial bottom probing, rebound, and then seeking a top, but the problem is, who can accurately judge where the bottom is.
It seems logical, but in real operation, it's easy to get played for suckers; that's my blood and tears lesson.
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DegenWhisperer
· 22h ago
Ah, I've already figured out this trap; who hasn't seen volume trick lines?
Wait, is extending the inspection period really good for retail investors? Why am I always trapped?
The psychological price level has some substance to it.
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defi_detective
· 22h ago
That's true, but this trap theory sounds smooth; it's still easy to flip when put into practice.
Let's really try these three new varieties to see how they feel and whether the volume is really that reliable.
Wait, does extending the observation period really benefit retail investors? It seems to give market makers more time to position themselves.
This analysis has a certain flavor; the details can indeed help avoid pitfalls, but I'm afraid human nature will start to be greedy again.
Recently, I went through the three new contract varieties launched by a leading exchange one by one, and I really found some insights.
Observing this, the exchange's extension of the observation period is actually a good thing for retail investors. With ample time, it can at least avoid the situation of getting cut right after going live, providing more space for reaction.
From several specific cases, it can actually be seen that the performance after the contract goes live is traceable.
1. Initial volatility pattern: The price trend when a new contract is first launched usually goes through a process of bottom-fishing - rebound - seeking a peak, rather than a straight upward rise. This provides retail investors with the opportunity to gradually position themselves.
2. Volume characteristics: A genuine trend market will be accompanied by a gradual and moderate increase in trading volume, while false breakouts are often unsupported by sufficient volume.
3. Key support levels: Each new variety has an initial psychological price level, and when these positions are broken, there is often a significant volume performance.
Although these details may seem basic, they can indeed help avoid many pitfalls in actual reviews.