Looking at history, what position is Bitcoin in during the current cycle?

Today let's mainly talk about Bitcoin. I hold a certain proportion of stocks related to Bitcoin. What is the current price level? What is the expected trend for the next year? We need to analyze it.

1. The cyclical nature of Bitcoin Bitcoin has a very obvious cyclicality, which has been basically 4 years per cycle based on the past few occurrences, and is very stable! As for the reasons behind the cycle, there are various opinions, but the core influencing factor lies in the Bitcoin halving event. The Bitcoin halving is a pre-set, automatically triggered event in the Bitcoin network, and its core mechanism aims to control the issuance speed of Bitcoin, ensuring that its total supply remains constant at 21 million coins, thus building its scarcity value foundation.

The driving force of this event occurs approximately every 210,000 new blocks produced (about every four years), halving the block reward for miners mining new Bitcoins.

Each occurrence of halving represents a decrease in the rewards obtained by miners with the same investment, leading to the exit of some unprofitable miners, which will delay the generation of Bitcoin.

It can be understood that as the cost of gold mining increases and the amount of tradable gold in the market decreases, the price goes up.

Therefore, shortly after the halving occurs, the price of Bitcoin will experience a surge. Once the price rises to a point where there is still profit even with the halving of mining rewards, more people will participate in mining, leading to an increase in supply, after which the price will fluctuate.

Of course, since the production of Bitcoin is virtual and does not have a mapping in the physical world, its fluctuations and cycles do not entirely follow the balance of supply and demand.

There are also factors such as liquidity, social consensus, speculative frenzy, market sentiment, and so on.

But the final result shows that starting from the halving cycle, the price peaks after 12-18 months, then begins to correct; it takes another 12-18 months for the price to bottom out, then starts to rebound, until the next halving begins.

2. Price fluctuations during the period

The most recent halving is scheduled for April 2024, so let's take a look at where we are in the cycle now.

The table above summarizes the price trends of Bitcoin over the last 4 cycles, and it can be seen that:

The price reaches its peak 12-18 months after the halving, with the peak price at least doubling compared to the price at the time of the halving.
The retracement after the peak is astonishing, reaching up to 80%.
It generally takes 13 months from the peak to the low point of a cyclical rebound.

Let's take a look back at the performance of this round of the cycle:
1) In the 18th month after the halving in April '24 (October 2025), a peak occurred with Bitcoin nearing $130,000;
2) After reaching a high point, a pullback to a low of 80,000 dollars, with a pullback magnitude of 36%;
Low point lasted only 1 month

If we look at the trend of the previous cycles, the current $80,000 does not seem to be the real low point, as the pullback is only 36%, far from the pullback scale of previous cycles.

In addition, the cycle is too short, or even if 80,000 dollars is the low point, it is not yet the turning point for Bitcoin prices to rebound; the market will need at least 6 to 12 months to stabilize and recover.

Of course, due to the significant improvements in Bitcoin-related policies and the social environment over the past two years, there are many voices suggesting that this time might be different. So if it is indeed different, what kind of trends can we expect in the market next?

3. Future price trends and investment strategies We will simulate from three perspectives: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic:
Pessimistic: 80,000 is not the price bottom, and the decline should approach at least 60%-70%, meaning the price will drop below 50,000 dollars; moreover, from a time perspective, it will need to stabilize and begin to recover by the second half of 2026.
Medium observation: 80,000 is the price bottom, but the price will fluctuate between 80,000 and 100,000 until the second half of 2026, when it will start to enter an upward channel.
Optimistic: 80,000 is the price bottom, and the correction period has significantly shortened, starting to rise in the first half of 2026.

Which of the three is more inclined to which type of person has different judgments. Since the future cannot be predicted, we can only adjust our positions based on the risks and returns we can accept in different situations of the three.

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