2025-12-21 17:20:13

#数字资产市场洞察 Is Bitcoin really "Oversold"? Macroeconomic analyst Julien Bittel provided an interesting assessment.

He recently pointed out that the rebound trajectory of $BTC after the RSI indicator fell below 30 is basically consistent with historical trend models—indicating that the current decline is merely a fluctuation within the bull market, and is not the end.

More importantly, he believes that the old cliché of "halving driven four-year cycle" has completely failed. What really drives the market is actually the underlying macro debt refinancing cycle.

The reason is simple: the weighted average maturity of U.S. debt has been extended repeatedly, which means that the current cycle of liquidity easing will be prolonged. Following this logic, this wave of Bitcoin bull market is likely to extend all the way to 2026.

For those investors who have been scared away by the recent fluctuations and want to run away, Bittel's advice is quite straightforward - if you still believe the bull market isn't over, now is the time to position yourself, not to liquidate. $ETH The various sectors of the industry are all watching this rhythm.

BTC1.97%

ETH2.77%

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GasOptimizer

· 45m ago

RSI falls below 30 and then rebounds? This data looks too standard, need to check the sample size and time period, otherwise it's just survivor bias... Debt refinancing cycle projected to 2026? Before getting trapped, still need to calculate the capital efficiency.

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ChainDetective

· 19h ago

Halving cycle invalid? I need to ponder this logic... The debt refinancing cycle pushes Bitcoin to 2026, sounds a bit ridiculous but seems to hold together? What I fear the most now is being repeatedly played for suckers while thinking I'm buying the dip. Extending the term of US debt = longer liquidity easing cycle? This is betting on a shift in Fed policy, feels like putting all the chips on macro expectations. If it really can rise to 2026, wouldn't getting in now be a blood profit? But I've heard this "historical model consistency" argument too many times... That said, the RSI breaking below 30 is indeed a technical signal, rather than closing all positions, why not first see if it can hold above?

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FlatlineTrader

· 19h ago

The notion of the halving cycle being invalid seems a bit radical; it feels like there's still too much optimism about macro liquidity.

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airdrop_huntress

· 19h ago

The term "Halving period failure" sounds quite novel, but driven by macro debt... Hmm, I need to ponder this logic some more. Anyway, I haven't closed all positions this time.

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probably_nothing_anon

· 19h ago

It's the same old story of the debt cycle again... but this time it actually sounds a bit interesting. Can the Fed pull off this trick until 2026? Whether to buy the dip or close all positions really just depends on whether you trust your own judgment. Is it really reliable that historical models repeat? I'm not so sure about that. Anyway, I'm continuing to hodl and just watching. People talk about the rebound from the bottom every year; let's see who can laugh last.

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LiquidityWitch

· 19h ago

I have to question the idea that the Halving cycle has failed. The macro debt cycle sounds impressive, but is it really more convincing than the technical aspects? Anyway, I don't believe in the extension of the bull run in 2026. Historical model comparisons can only serve as references. It's a bit early to start making promises when we're still in a consolidation phase. Those who are scared and want to run are actually right. There's no need to hold on until 2026; if you've made a profit, just run. Don't get trapped by the narrative. The logic of macro debt is indeed novel, but to say that the Halving cycle has completely failed is to deny the driving force behind the rises of the past four years. $BTC $ETH is this wave really Oversold or falsely Oversold? We'll know when the RSI drops to zero and keeps falling. It's a bit early to talk about the Rebound consistency now. Instead of believing analysts' judgments, it's better to assess your own risk tolerance. I'm making small investments and holding multiple shares; how about you?

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PrivacyMaximalist

· 19h ago

The judgment of the halving cycle being invalid is quite fresh, but the logic driven by the macro debt cycle... to be honest, it sounds like finding reasons for holding coins. Isn't the expectation for 2026 too optimistic? Does extending the debt period necessarily mean ongoing liquidity? Aren't there enough variables in between?

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