Wu's macro indicators and analysis for this week: U.S. third quarter real GDP, core PCE

Compiled by: GaryMa Wu said Blockchain

Abstract Wu's macro indicators and analysis for this week: Last week, the U.S. November unemployment rate was 4.6%, exceeding expectations, while the unadjusted core CPI was 2.6%, falling short of expectations. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 bps. This week, global markets are entering Christmas mode, with a focus on the actual GDP for the U.S. third quarter and core PCE, among others.

Weekly Review

The unemployment rate in the United States for November is 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, with an expectation of 4.4%. The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll in the United States for November is 64,000 people, with an expectation of 50,000.

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 13 was 224,000, with an expectation of 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 236,000 to 237,000.

U.S. November seasonally unadjusted core CPI year-on-year 2.6%, expected 3%. U.S. November seasonally unadjusted CPI year-on-year 2.7%, expected 3.1%.

The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark interest rate to the highest level in 30 years. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the policy committee unanimously decided to raise the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.75%, citing that the likelihood of achieving its economic outlook is increasing. Shortly after the statement was released, the yen weakened against the dollar, trading around 156 yen, indicating that the market has fully absorbed the impact of the rate hike.

The Bank of England's interest rate decision is 3.75% as of December 18, with expectations at 3.75% and a previous value of 4.00%. This aligns with market expectations, as the bank had previously paused its quarterly rate cuts since August 2024.

The Eurozone's European Central Bank deposit facility rate is 2% as of December 18, in line with expectations of 2% and previous value of 2.00%.

The University of Michigan in the United States announced that the final consumer confidence index for December 2025 is 52.9, a slight increase from 51.0 in November, but still a year-on-year decline of 28.5%. The report points out that the conditions for purchasing durable goods have weakened for the fifth consecutive month, but personal financial and business outlook expectations have improved; 63% of respondents still expect the unemployment rate to rise in the coming year. In terms of inflation expectations, the one-year inflation expectation has fallen to 4.2%, the lowest in 11 months, while the long-term inflation expectation has decreased to 3.2%.

Key Events & Indicators This Week December 23

The initial value of the annualized quarterly GDP in the United States for the third quarter (21:30)

US Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly Rate Preliminary Value (21:30)

December 24

The Bank of Japan announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting for October (07:50)

The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 20 is ( million ) (21:30)

The Bank of Canada released the monetary policy meeting minutes (02:30)