The debate over prediction market edges keeps heating up. Ray Dalio argues that shrewd traders can indeed spot advantages in these emerging markets—timing, information asymmetry, volatility swings. But dig into Twitter threads and you'll find plenty of retail traders pushing back, claiming the game's rigged or luck dominates skill at these price levels.

Here's the thing though: both camps might be seeing different pieces of the puzzle. Dalio's operating at macro scale with institutional capital and advanced analytics. Most retail participants? They're playing with smaller positions, tighter spreads, less sophisticated prediction models. The edge question really hinges on execution level, not absolute market truth. Whether prediction markets become the next major trading frontier depends on who can adapt their strategy fastest—that's where the real competitive advantage lies.