2025-12-21 19:20:56

The market enters a critical period during Christmas week. The US stock market will only be open for 3.5 days (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday morning, and Friday), which means market liquidity is about to shrink significantly. During this "liquidity vacuum period," low liquidity is most likely to amplify fluctuations, and the risks of false breakouts and a quick rebound have obviously increased, especially with the 7×24 trading nature of Bitcoin, which requires traders to be especially cautious.

The current situation is very interesting — the market is holding its breath, the direction of Bitcoin is unclear, and many traders have turned to spot trading to actively reduce risk. This precisely illustrates the rational attitude of market participants.

From a historical perspective, the probability of the S&P 500 rising after Christmas is as high as 76-80% (based on data from 1950-2022). However, Bitcoin often tends to have an independent market trend, and technical corrections may actually become an opportunity for positioning.

In terms of specific operations, if there is a pullback in U.S. stocks from the beginning of the week to Wednesday, one can build positions in batches; for Bitcoin, if there is a deep pullback during the Christmas period, it can be bought in steps; if it is in sideways fluctuation, it may be better to patiently wait for a clearer opportunity window. At the same time, pay attention to some leading stocks at the beginning of the week.

From a longer-term perspective, 2026 will bring about a cycle blur. Bitcoin's four-year cycle is gradually becoming "blurred," with market drivers shifting from on-chain activities to macro liquidity. This means that as the market cap increases, the dependence on global liquidity becomes stronger. 2026 may present atypical bull and bear markets, with the pace of interest rate cuts directly determining the speed of liquidity release. Compared to 2018 and 2022, the macro environment has indeed improved quite a bit, but this advantage may still not be enough to support a full bull market.

This week, the total liquidation amount of Bitcoin is approximately $650 million, with $205 million on December 15, $111 million on December 17, and $202 million on December 19. The excessive long and short positions, combined with thin liquidity, actually reflect a phase of market reset, rather than a panic signal—it's more like a rhythm adjustment before a clear direction.

Final insights: Keep enough cash for living expenses, plan for sustainable income, and stick to regular Bitcoin investments. Don't waste the bear market; planning ahead is an advantage.

BTC-0,8%

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WenMoon

· 2025-12-24 06:21

The so-called liquidity vacuum period is back again, it's talked about every year, and what’s the result? Some people still make money while others lose, the key is whether you have set your stop-loss properly. Honestly, now that more people are turning to spot trading, I’m a bit anxious. It feels like the common "smart money" pretending to be rational. The 2026 cycle is becoming blurry? Sounds pretty intimidating, but honestly, it’s just betting on the pace of rate cuts. Who can predict macro trends accurately... Dollar-cost averaging, dollar-cost averaging, hearing about it every day, but I’ve never heard of anyone achieving financial freedom through DCA. Forget it, I still have to rely on trading to find opportunities. Clearing 650 million sounds huge, but compared to the total annual clearing volume, it’s not worth mentioning at all. The panic is being hyped up again.

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SilentAlpha

· 2025-12-21 19:42

The liquidity vacuum period is indeed a correct assessment, but I think the real test is still the mindset... Looking at the 650 million in liquidation, how many people should just eat and sleep. The spot traders are indeed smart, I've switched over too; rather than guessing the direction, it's better to take a steady approach. That 76-80% data sounds great, but Bitcoin often doesn't follow the script; will there be another surprise this time... Just wait, anyway, the Auto-Invest continues, as long as there's enough spare money to spend. Is the 2026 cycle becoming unclear? It feels like the rules have been changing in the past two years; macro liquidity is the real master. Frequent liquidations indicate that there are still people in the market who can't hold on; I take my profits and run with half of my position. If it's sideways, then let it be; no need to rush, opportunities will always come.

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OnchainHolmes

· 2025-12-21 19:35

The liquidity vacuum period is indeed a test of mindset; this wave of liquidation data looks a bit scary but is actually a normal rhythm adjustment. Sticking to Auto-Invest is truly correct; it tests whether one can endure the psychological fluctuations of these few days. During Christmas week, this is when quick rebounds are most likely to happen; don't chase the price or buy the dip, just wait for the opportunity to reveal itself. On the macro liquidity front, it's true that predicting 2026 is quite difficult; the pace of interest rate cuts is the key. Now, more people are turning to Spot, indicating that everyone is being cautious, which is actually a good sign.

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