The U.S. economy is playing out a "differentiated hot and cold" drama. On the surface, the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data looks good, but in reality, the unemployment rate has surged to 4.6%, reaching a recent high. Even more concerning is that the broader U6 unemployment rate has jumped to 8.7%, with wage growth at only 3.5%, while prices continue to rise. Purchasing power is seriously squeezed, and the wallets of ordinary people are truly shrinking.

The biggest paradox has arrived - the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates by 150 basis points, but those industries sensitive to interest rates show no signs of improvement. The unemployment rate is about to trigger the warning line of the "Sam's Rule", indicating that the policy effects are clearly weakening. The underlying reason is quite simple: economic growth is entirely supported by AI, and when you remove the AI factor, the remaining industries are almost on the brink of recession.

The regional differentiation is even more striking. Blue states are experiencing job contractions, while deep red states are also diversifying. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book clearly documents this "tale of two cities" situation in black and white. The debt issue is even more troubling—interest expenses have exceeded the defense budget for the first time. Coupled with the increasingly fierce de-dollarization wave, the economic pressure on the United States is indeed accumulating.

The impact of these changes on the crypto market will not be small. During a loosening cycle, digital assets often become a "safe haven" for capital. So the question arises, will the Federal Reserve continue to open the floodgates, or will it resort to other unconventional measures? In this wave of economic differentiation, can the crypto market welcome a surge of safe-haven funds?