KOLs on the square frequently showcase their rise, claiming that a bull run has quietly arrived. But if you ask ten retail investors whether the bull run has really come, nine will deny it. The issue is not about who is bad or who is foolish, but rather that the market itself does not yet possess the fundamental conditions for a bull run.

In the past year, investors have suffered severe losses. What is more frightening than the losses? It is the complete loss of confidence in this market. Those with money dare not build positions or add to them, while those without money are even more cautious. External regulations are tightening, internal order is chaotic, and even the most influential bloggers cannot change the current state of the market. Asking a few questions and trying to deceive people is an outdated approach.

Today's situation did not happen overnight, and the change certainly cannot be achieved in a short time. The key lies in liquidity—people and funds from outside cannot enter, while funds inside continue to flow out. Once liquidity is exhausted, the entire ecosystem will fall into a deadly loop. This is also why leading exchanges are actively exploring international markets, especially in wealthy countries and regions.

To take a step back, even if a bull run really comes, will today's investors still touch altcoins? There are tens of thousands of coins in the market, and they can't just play with a few leading coins like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB, right? It's just like the stock market; can retail investors only speculate on Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Petroleum?

So market changes will not happen overnight. A rise over one or two days does not mean much; a true turning point requires time and the restoration of liquidity. Instead of fixating on how many days are left this year, it is better to look forward to new opportunities next year.