#以太坊行情解读 The Bank of Japan announced an interest rate hike on the 19th, and Bitcoin is hovering around 86K. The comments section is filled with the same question: Is this the bottom? Is it foolish to enter the market now? To be honest, I don't know either, but the historical data I have might be able to advise.

Looking back at the records of the past three years, every time the Japanese Central Bank takes action, Bitcoin's reaction is actually quite regular:

In March 2024, Bitcoin dropped by 23%-27%, fluctuating for 6 weeks.
In July 2024, there will be a round where the decline expands to 26%-30%. This time, there is also the flash crash on August 5 as assistance, totaling 8 weeks.
In January 2025, the most recent drop was 31%, lasting for 7 weeks.

On average, the drop is about 27%, over a period of seven weeks.

If history doesn't throw any curveballs, this round's script might look like this:
Pessimistic scenario, dropping to 70K (equivalent to -19%), recovering only by the end of January 2026.
The middle route stands firm at 75K (-13%), rebounding in mid-January 2026.
Optimistic route, 80K has been maintained (only down -7%), stabilizing in about two weeks.

But the question arises - will there be new tricks this time? Both risks and opportunities are here.

Three factors that could stir up trouble: First, the guidance from Ueda Kazuo on the interest rate path for 2026, this is the real time bomb that has been buried. Second, liquidity tightening at the end of the year, institutions have frozen their positions until January next year, and no one dares to take action. Third, the US Triple Witching Day is approaching, and the expiration of trillion-dollar options will cause tail risks, which could frighten the market.

So what should we do now? Three old rules are right in front of us:

First, don't try to catch the bottom on the day of the interest rate hike. In the past three instances, not one person who entered the market that day was not trapped, and they spent the following weeks watching their losses turn green.

Second, allow yourself a 6-8 week observation period. The real bottom signals usually appear 6-8 weeks after the interest rate hike, so don't rush to get on board.

Third, pay attention to the fund flows of ETFs. A net inflow for three consecutive days can indicate that institutions are quietly building positions, and that is your reference signal.

I may not tell you whether to buy or sell right now, but I will say this: history never repeats itself simply, but it always rhymes in some way. When everyone on the screen is asking, "Will this time be different?", the market often tells you in the most ruthless way — most of the time, it’s very much the same.

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