I took a look at the predictions for Bitcoin made by major institutions at the beginning of the year, and to be honest, it's quite heartbreaking. Those aggressive targets of $200,000 to $250,000 have basically not been achieved. Why is that? Simply put, the market is just too unstable.

In a high-volatility environment, various macro risks come one after another, with changes in exchange rates and adjustments in interest rates able to impact Bitcoin. What’s even more painful is the issue of crowded leverage—too many people are piled in the same direction, resulting in a wave of deleveraging that throws everything into chaos, interrupting the upward trend and leaving it in shambles. After going back and forth like this, the hard-won upward momentum is completely worn away.

It seems that to accurately predict the Bitcoin trend, data analysis alone is not enough; one must always be alert to changes in market sentiment and risk factors.