#数字资产市场洞察 $BTC $ETH $UNI

The Federal Reserve has sounded the hawk again! Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's recent remarks directly hit the pain point in the market: after three consecutive rate cuts, interest rates may need to remain unchanged.

This committee member, who won't have voting rights until 2026, has made her position very clear—no more rate cuts, let the rates stabilize in the current range of 3.5%-3.75%. Her core logic is very firm: inflation remains stubborn and is far more concerning than the risks to employment.

What's even more heart-wrenching is that Hamaq questioned the 2.7% CPI data from November, suggesting that the real inflation might be higher. She candidly stated in a podcast: "Unless inflation clearly declines or employment significantly deteriorates, keeping interest rates where they are is sufficient." We also need to wait for the full effects of Trump's tariff policy to reassess. New York Fed's Williams is also in the same camp, supporting a pause in interest rate cuts. The December FOMC meeting saw a rare division, with ongoing dissent.

The market response is very straightforward: the probability of a rate cut in January next year has fallen to only 21%. Global investors are now focused on the data, waiting to see if this "hawkish counterattack" will completely rewrite the script for easing expectations.